摘要
文章运用消除内生性的异质性随机前沿引力模型,实证分析了2005~2015年"中巴经济走廊"周边国家异质性恐怖袭击目标与贸易效率的因果关系,进一步检验了反恐行动在这一因果关系中的调节效应,借助局部散点回归拟合图和箱型估计量调节效应图对反恐行动调节效应的非线性问题做了适当的拓展性探究。研究表明:第一,从恐怖袭击目标异质性来看,全样本中贸易效率对上一年度"私人及财产"目标袭击的敏感度较强,而中国样本中贸易效率对上一年度"商业目标"袭击的敏感度较强;第二,反恐行动在全样本的"恐怖袭击-贸易效率"因果关系链条中发挥了显著调节效应,"私人及财产"目标袭击对贸易效率的条件边际效应低于"商业目标"袭击,这可能与地区内对前者投入的反恐资金与资源更多有关;第三,局部散点回归拟合图和箱型估计量调节效应图显示,恐怖袭击对贸易效率的条件边际效应具有非线性,应当谨慎解释模型中存在的交互效应。
Applying heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model without endogeneity,this article empirically analyzes the causal relationship between heterogeneous terrorist attacks and trade efficiency of the peripheral countries of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor( CPEC) from 2005 to 2015,and further examines the moderating effect of counter-terrorist efforts in this causal relationship. In the end,we use the partial scatter regression fitting graph and binning estimator moderating effect graph to examine the potential non-linear trait of counter-terrorist efforts. The study indicates that: First,from the perspective of heterogeneous terrorist targets,in the full sample,trade efficiency is more sensitive to the " private citizens & property" attacks in the last year. Whereas in the Chinese sample,trade efficiency is more sensitive to " business" attacks in the last year. Second,in the full sample,antiterrorist activities has played a significant moderating role in the casual chain of " terrorist attack-trade efficiency". Specifically,the conditional marginal effect of " private citizens & property" attacks on trade efficiency is lower than its counterpart-" business" attacks,which may be related to much more anti-terrorism funds and resources invested towards the former target type in this region. Third,the local scatter regression fitting graph and the binning estimator moderating effect graph display that the marginal effects of terrorist attacks on trade efficiency are nonlinear,and we should interpret the interaction effect in the model carefully.
作者
陈继勇
李知睿
廖湘岳
Chen Jiyong;Li Zhirui;Liao Xiangyue
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期30-45,M0002,M0003,共18页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’相关国家的贸易竞争与互补关系研究”(项目编号:16ZDA039)
中国国家留学基金资助项目(项目编号:201806270065)
武汉大学研究生出国(境)联合培养专项经费资助。
