摘要
在对区间数的预测过程中,由于不确定因素,采用单一的预测方法可能会产生较大的误差的不足;与此同时每种单项预测方法在各个时点处的精度也不尽相同,定权系数区间组合预测模型存在着权重固定不变这一不足之处。本文引入诱导广义有序加权对数平均(IGOWLA)算子,以区间数距离作为最优准则,构建一种基于新距离测度的诱导广义有序加权对数平均算子区间组合预测模型。实例验证表明,本文所构建的区间组合预测方法可提高预测精度,即本文所提出的方法是一种有效的优性的组合预测方法。
In the process of interval number prediction,due to the uncertain factors,a single prediction method may produce a large error.At the same time,the accuracy of each single prediction method at each time point is not the same.There is a shortage of fixed weight in the interval combination forecasting model with fixed weight coefficient.In this paper,the IGOWLA operator is introduced,and the interval distance is used as the optimal criterion to construct an interval combination forecasting model based on the new interval number distance measure.The example shows that the interval combination forecasting method can improve the forecasting accuracy,that is to say,the method proposed in this paper is an effective combination forecasting method.
作者
章琛
ZHANG Chen(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2020年第13期228-231,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
安徽财经大学“研究生科研创新基金”(ACYC2017233)项目资助。
作者简介
章琛(1994-),男,安徽池州人,安徽财经大学在读研究生。
