摘要
建立了包含空间交互项的动态人口增长模型,通过设定不变权重和时变权重矩阵构建动态空间自回归面板模型,分析我国人口增长率的影响因素。研究发现:人口增长率具有协同效应、惯性效应和挤出效应;城镇人口比例、受教育程度、人口老龄化比例、城镇居民可支配收入、犯罪率与人口增长率负相关,而第一产业就业人数比例、农村人口与人口增长率正相关;OLS方法低估了各影响因素的大小;相比于不变权重,时变权重能更好地刻画各影响因素对人口增长率的影响程度,而忽略时变权重的内生性会导致参数估计的偏误。
This paper established a dynamic population growth model with spatial interaction. And then, the dynamic spatial autoregressive panel model is constructed by setting constant weight and time-varying weight matrix to analyze the influencing factors of China’s population growth rate. Result shows that, population growth rate has synergistic effect, inertia effect and crowding out effect. The proportion of urban population, the educational level, the proportion of aging population, the disposable income of urban residents and the crime rate are negatively correlated with the population growth rate. The proportion of employment in the primary industry and the rural population are positively correlated with the population growth rate. OLS method underestimates the size of each influencing factor. Compared with invariant weights, time-varying weights can better describe the magnitude and significance of the impact of various factors on population growth rate, while ignoring the endogeneity of time-varying weights will lead to errors in parameter estimation.
作者
周少甫
张嘉俊
ZHOU Shao fu;ZHANG Jia jun(School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074)
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期58-63,共6页
Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(15BJL053)。
关键词
人口增长模型
动态空间面板
内生时变权重矩阵
population growth model
spatial dynamic panel model
endogenous time-varying weights matrices
作者简介
周少甫(1963-),男,湖北天门人,教授、博士生导师,研究方向为应用经济学;通讯作者:张嘉俊(1994-),男,河南洛阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为空间计量经济学。
