基于复杂系统动力学传播视角的技术范式转换预警模型分析被引量：1

Analysis of Technology Paradigm Shift Early Warning Model Based on Dynamic Perspective of Complex System Dynamics

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摘要本文针对内外部环境交互变化引起的企业战略不确定性展开研究,通过分析企业在应对复杂环境变化期间技术范式的变化趋势,从5个维度梳理出了影响企业技术范式转换的19个因素,构建了基于动力学传播的技术范式转换理论模型。在模型构建的基础上,结合案例对模型进行仿真模拟,分析了企业在具有混沌、非线性、动态等复杂系统特征的动态变化中应当如何主动把握技术范式转换节奏,保持自身竞争力。研究发现企业的技术范式转换受制于自我创新的战略决策,而企业内部的运行状态又影响着自我创新的战略决策,并从系统熵动力学传播的视角,打开了企业创新机会选择的黑箱,厘清了企业内部稳定性的变化过程,解释了影响技术范式转换的作用机理,提出了对技术范式变化的适时监控和对技术范式转换的及时预警方法,为企业实施创新战略决策和推进技术范式转换提供了理论支撑和决策依据。 Study dealt with the uncertainty of enterprise strategy caused by the changes of internal and external environmental,analyzed the change trend of the technology paradigm transformation when the enterprise faced to the complex changing of environment,teased out 19 factors that could possibly affect the technology paradigm transformation from 5 dimensions,built the theory model of technology paradigm transformation based on spreading dynamics.On the basic,this study simulated analogically the theory model with Matlab software,and analyzed how the enterprise should actively grasp the rhythm of technology paradigm transformation in a chaotic nonlinear dynamical environment to maintain its core competitiveness.Study considered the technology paradigm transformation is subject to the strategy decision of enterprise innovation,however,the its inner-operational condition affected the strategy decision of enterprise innovation,and through the dynamic angle of the entropy variation,open the black box of the timing of innovation opportunities,cleared up the changing process of internal stability,explained the function mechanism that impacted the technology paradigm transformation,presented the methods of the timely monitor and the early warning,offered the theoretical support and the decision basis for the enterprise's strategic decision-making and technology paradigm transformation.

作者翁渊瀚李南王京安 Weng Yuanhan;Li Nan;Wang Jingan(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211000,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211800,China;Zhongshan Institute,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Zhongshan 528400,China)

机构地区南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院南京工业大学经济与管理学院电子科技大学中山学院

出处《工业技术经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第5期152-160,共9页 Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基金国家自然科学基金面上项目“技术范式转换预警的理论与方法”(项目编号:71473119)。

关键词技术范式动力学传播系统熵预警网络企业创新决策动态转换 technology paradigm transformation spreading dynamics entropy variation early warning enterprise innovation decision dynamic translation

分类号 F224 [经济管理—国民经济] F273.1 [经济管理—企业管理]

作者简介翁渊瀚,南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院博士研究生,南京工业大学经济与管理学院讲师,研究方向:知识管理与技术创新;李南,南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院教授,博士,博士生导师,研究方向:技术创新;王京安,电子科技大学中山学院教授,博士,硕士生导师,研究方向:组织理论与创新管理。