摘要
为提高高速公路行车风险评估的客观性,减少已有评价方法在指标聚合权重确定过程中的主观因素影响,准确反映高速公路和环境风险状况,针对已有评价方法在指标聚合过程中的主观任意性,提出基于影响系数确定评价指标的权重,对评价指标进行聚合,并以此建立高速公路不同状态下的行车风险评估模型。首先分析自由行驶稳定安全条件、换车道行驶状态和跟车行驶状态的车辆碰撞限制安全条件,在此基础上,利用安全条件提出风险评估基本指标及不同状态下的车辆行驶风险函数。通过相同比例的指标增量计算风险增量,利用风险函数及风险增量计算各个指标的影响系数,运用影响系数确定风险评估指标的聚合权重,从而建立高速公路不同行驶状态风险评估模型,最后提出高速公路行车风险等级划分标准。利用模型对陕西定汉线宝鸡至坪坎高速公路某长陡纵坡路段的不同行驶状态风险进行计算,确定行车风险等级,筛选出不同行驶状态下的高风险路段,通过对比验证。结果表明,运用评估模型确定的1个换车道高风险路段和2个跟车行驶高风险路段与利用现行的《公路项目安全性评价规范》确定的高风险路段一致。该模型对于高速公路行车风险的有效识别及划分,可以为高速公路交通安全管理提供有效的决策支持。
In order to perform more objective evaluation of expressway traffic risk and reduce the influence of subjective factors of existing assessment methods in the process of indicator aggregation weight determination, and accurately reflect the expressway and environmental risk situation, aiming at the subjective arbitrariness of existing assessment methods in the process of indicator aggregation, it is proposed that to determine the weights of assessment indicators based on influence coefficient, to aggregate the assessment indicators, and to develop the driving risk assessment model in different expressway states. First, the safety conditions for free driving stability, the vehicle crash limit conditions for lane changing driving state and car following state are analyzed. On this basis, the basic risk assessment indicators and the vehicle driving risk functions in different states are proposed by using safety conditions. The risk increment is calculated by the same proportional indicator increment, and the influence coefficient of each indicator is calculated by using risk function and risk increment. The aggregate weight of risk assessment indicators is determined by using influence coefficient to establish the risk assessment models of expressway in different driving states, and the classification criterion for expressway driving risk levels is put forward at last. By using the model, the risks of a long and steep longitudinal slope section of Baoji-Pingkan expressway in Dingbian-Hanzhong line of Shaanxi Province in different driving states are calculated, the driving risk levels are determined, the high-risk sections in different driving states are selected, and comparative verification is performed. The result shows that the 1 high-risk lane changing section and 2 high-risk following sections determined by the evaluation model are consistent with the high-risk road section determined by current Specifications for Highway Safety Audit. The This model can effectively identify and classify the expressway driving risks, and can provide an effective decision-making support for expressway traffic safety management.
作者
邱磊
叱干都
邓志刚
刘建蓓
马小龙
QIU Lei;CHIGAN Du;DENG Zhi-gang;LIU Jian-bei;MA Xiao-long(R&D Center on Emergency Support Technologies for Transport Safety of Ministry of Transport,CCCC First Highway Consultants Co.,L td.,Xi’an Shaanxi 710075,China;Guangdong Road and Bridge Construction Development Co.,L td.,Guangzhou Guangdong 510623,China)
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期123-129,共7页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0803907)
广东省交通运输厅2017年度重大科技专项项目(科技-2017-01-002-007)。
关键词
交通安全
评估模型
影响系数
高速公路
行车风险
权重
traffic safety
assessment model
influence coefficient
expressway
driving risk
weight
作者简介
邱磊(1983-),男,陕西咸阳人,高级工程师.(27914557@qq.com)。
