摘要
为探讨贵州省近60年气温空间变化特征对输电线路的影响,本文采用普通克里格法与协同克里格法两种插值方法的误差进行对比分析,选择协同克里格法对贵州省19个地面观测站1951-2010年的温度观测数据进行空间插值,从而得出贵州省气温分布特征。研究结果表明:贵州省近60年平均温度从1951年的15.2℃上升到了2010年的15.9℃,上升了0.7℃,平均每10年约上升0.12℃;通过气温空间分布特征分析得出在铜仁、榕江、罗甸、望谟一代温度较高,有可能造成输电线路软化而形成弧垂,使输电线路绝缘老化,设计施工时应尽量考虑输电导线绝缘材料的耐热性;习水、毕节、威宁一代,冬季气温较低,有可能造成输电线路覆冰致使线路损坏和杆塔受力过大而倒塌,设计施工时应考虑杆塔承受能力和导线的拉伸能力。
In order to explore the influence of spatial variation of temperature on transmission lines in Guizhou province in the past 60 years,this paper uses the common Kriging method and the collaborative Kriging method to compare and analyze the errors of two interpolation methods,and selects the collaborative Kriging method to perform spatial interpolation on the temperature observation data of 19 ground stations in Guizhou Province from 1951 to 2010,so as to obtain the temperature distribution characteristics of Guizhou province.The results show that the average temperature of Guizhou province in the past 60 years has increased from 15.2 ℃ in 1951 to 15.9 ℃ in 2010,increased by 0.7 ℃ and increased by 0.12 ℃ every 10 years on average.Through the analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of temperature,it is concluded that the higher temperature of Tongren,Rongjiang,Luodian and Wangmo generation may cause the transmission line to soften and form the sag,which may cause the insulation aging of the transmission line.During the design and construction,the The heat resistance of the insulation material of the transmission line shall be considered as much as possible;Xi Shui,Bijie and Weining generation,with low temperature in winter,may cause the transmission line to be iced,causing the line to be damaged and the tower to collapse due to excessive stress,so the bearing capacity of the tower and the tensile energy of the conductor shall be considered in the design and construction.
作者
刘发勇
犹珀玉
LIU Fa-yong;YOU Po-yu(PowerChina Guizhou Eleectric Power Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550081 Guizhou,China)
出处
《电力大数据》
2020年第2期9-16,共8页
Power Systems and Big Data
基金
北斗卫星电力行业应用关键技术研究及数据应用产业化(黔科合重大专项2018-3007)
输电线路空间大数据分析与辅助决策系统开发与应用研究(DJ-ZDXM-2018-47)。
关键词
插值
平均误差
气温
特征分析
输电线路
interpolation
mean error
temperature
characteristic analysis
transmission line
作者简介
刘发勇(1991-),男,硕士,工程师,主要从事GIS集成研究工作。
