摘要
人口老龄化问题及其对科技发展的影响日益成为世界各国关注的焦点,但缺乏从总体上把握研究态势的相关成果。本研究以Web of Science数据库收录的相关文献为研究数据,首先运用文献计量分析对其进行量化,分析其总量趋势与研究母国参与程度。其次,运用文本挖掘、聚类分析和内容分析方法,从研究主题与方法演变、影响路径对比等方面,关于人口老龄化对科技发展的影响路径进行了识别与分析。从识别出的研究主题分布提炼出"人口老龄化-技术创新-科技发展""人口老龄化-人力资本-科技发展""人口老龄化-养老支出-科技发展"三大核心影响路径。研究发现:人口老龄化与科技发展相关文献自2013年以来增长趋势明显;该领域的研究方法主要为定量分析;各国学者总体上存在人口老龄化对科技发展有负面影响的压倒性共识。在此基础上,对该领域的研究方向提出了建议。
Population aging and its impact on scientific and technological development have increasingly become the focus of attention in the world, but there is a lack of relevant research results to grasp the overall situation. This paper took the relevant literature collected in Web of Science database as the research data. Firstly, it made quantification on those literatures by bibliometric analysis, and analyzed their total trend and the degree of home country participation. Secondly, using text mining, clustering analysis and content analysis methods, it identified and analyzed the impact path of population aging on the development of science and technology from the aspects of research theme and method evolution, impact path comparison and so on. From the identified distribution of research topics, three core impact paths were extracted: population aging-technological innovation-scientific and technological development, population aging-human capital-scientific and technological development, and population aging-pension expenditure-scientific and technological development. It was found that the literature related to population aging and scientific and technological development had shown an obvious growth trend since 2013;the main research method in this field was quantitative analysis;and there was an overwhelming consensus among scholars in various countries that population aging had a negative impact on scientific and technological development. On this basis, some suggestions on the research direction in this field were put forward.
作者
黄鲁成
郝亚丽
苗红
袁菲
Huang Lucheng;HaoYali;Miao Hong;Yuan Fei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,BeiJing 100124)
出处
《创新科技》
2020年第1期18-29,共12页
Innovation science and technology
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“依靠科技创新应对人口老龄化跨学科研究”(17ZDA119)。
关键词
人口老龄化
科技发展
影响路径
文献计量分析
population aging
scientific and technological development
impact path
bibliometric analysis
作者简介
黄鲁成(1956-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:科技管理;郝亚丽(1995-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向:科技管理;苗红(1977-),女,博士后,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:科技管理;袁菲(1981-),男,博士,讲师,研究方向:技术创新管理。
