摘要
随着中国天然气消费市场的不断扩大,近几年出现了天然气供应数量不足和价格异常波动等现象,引发了对天然气供应安全问题的担忧。为此,在分析影响中国天然气供应安全主要因素的基础上,从独特的角度审视了国内天然气供应形势,形成了对于中国天然气供应安全形势的若干认识,指出中国并不存在天然气供应安全问题,一些情况的出现是天然气产业发展过程中的正常现象,可以通过深化改革和完善政策予以解决,最后还提出了保障中国天然气供应安全的建议。研究结果表明:①冬季国内供应偏紧、局部价格上涨、进口管道气短供和进口依存度上升是引发对中国天然气供应安全担忧的直接因素,需求过于旺盛、基础设施不足、改革进程不协调是造成供应安全担忧的深层次原因;②进口依存度不能和供应安全程度划等号,基本上不存在"马六甲困局",中国天然气供应安全具有良好的资源基础条件和有利的国际市场环境;③加快国内油气上游改革、发挥价格机制调节作用、加强基础设施建设和互联互通,加大海外资源引进力度、推进全球天然气市场融合,可以更好地保障中国天然气供应安全。
With continuous expansion of China's natural-gas consumption market,both insufficient supply and abnormal price fluctuation appeared recently will bring about certain anxious on domestic natural-gas supply security.So,three main reasons arousing this security were analyzed at first,and then some supply situation was investigated from a unique perspective.And accordingly five understandings were achieved.It's pointed out that the natural-gas supply in China is safe and an emergence of such problems is usual during natural-gas industrial development,which can be solved by deepening the reform and improving the policies.Finally,six suggestions to guarantee the security were made.Results show that(1)further tightening the supply in winter,local price rise,short supply of imported pipeline gas,and increase of import dependence are direct factors resulting in anxious on the domestic supply security.And excessive demand,insufficient infrastructure,and inharmonious reform process are the deeper factors;(2)the import dependence shall not be equated with the supply security degree,there is basically no"Malacca dilemma",and the domestic supply security has better resource foundation and favorable international market environment;and(3)this supply security can be better guaranteed by accelerating the reform of industrial upstream,playing the regulating role of price mechanism,strengthening the infra structure construction and interconnection,increasing the importing of overseas resources,and promoting the integration of global natural-gas markets.
作者
白俊
张雄君
Bai Jun;Zhang Xiongjun(Research Institute,Beijing Gas Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100011,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2020年第1期1-5,38,共6页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
作者简介
白俊(1970-),研究员,硕士,主要从事能源战略、政策、经济和国际合作等方面的研究工作。E-mail:jimjun bai@sina.com。
