摘要
软件项目是以科学满足软件需求为目标,涵盖人员、技术、管理等多种要素的工程实施与组织管理过程。长期以来,由于软件项目客观存在的一些不确定性因素,使得实施过程中常常会遇到设计、费用、进度与功能变化等诸多问题。虽然高效的开发技术不断涌现,但管理问题一直存在,风险问题也经常显现,成为软件行业的焦点问题。正确认识和管理软件项目风险能够提高软件项目开发的成功率,降低风险发生概率。软件项目风险管理是软件项目管理中的重点问题之一。随着软件行业的发展,软件项目风险呈现出新的特点,风险管理内容也产生了新的变化。为了追踪软件项目风险管理研究的脉络和发展趋势,运用网络爬虫技术,获取了国内外软件项目风险相关文献3129篇,利用分词和统计分析技术,对文献作者、关键字、主题等进行提取和词频分析,挖掘出研究主体的空间分布情况;从发文数量及发文时间角度对中外学者研究进行对比分析,梳理出软件项目风险概念界定、研究阶段、研究方法等方面的演化进程。通过对文献主题的分析,梳理出软件项目风险研究的方向和趋势。通过上述文本分析思路,可以得出该领域中的主流研究方法及发展趋势。在文献数量的变化上可以推断,软件项目风险同质化研究较多,研究的创新性突破口难以发掘,致使中文文献数量有所降低。通过观察研究团队词云可视化情况,发现了计算机类及管理类两大主流研究方向。如何从管理角度进行风险研究一直是该领域关注的重点。基于时间顺序的文献主题汇总,能够清晰看出软件项目风险研究是以项目管理为主导、风险管理为导向,将项目管理及风险管理相融合,进行以软件项目为主体的概念性界定。软件项目风险管理理论研究相对成熟后,风险评估、风险识别、风险控制相关技术性的研究也开始兴起,再从应用角度进行风险管理的验证研究。至今风险管理仍以评估为主要研究手段,通过对高频词的共性进行分析,找到词汇关联中较为新颖的研究方向。例如,风险识别过程正在从人工主观辨别向机器自动识别转化;风险管理对象属性特点的转变是由静到动的变化;由大数据技术引发的风险知识库建立、智能风险管理系统的搭建等前沿研究。对研究趋势的探索将为软件项目风险防控、提升软件项目成功率提供新的解决思路,为软件项目风险的相关研究提供可参考的方法。
Software project is an engineering process that aims to meet the demand side of software scientifically,covering various elements such as personnel,technology,management,etc.For a long time,due to some uncertain factors of software projects,many problems such as design,cost,progress and function change are often encountered in the implementation of software projects.Although the development technology is constantly improving,the management problems always exist,and the risk problem is inevitable,making it being the focus of the software industry.Correctly understanding and managing the software project risk can improve the success rate of software project development and reduce the probability of risk occurrence.Software project risk management is one of the key issues in software project management.With the development of software industry,software project risk also presents new characteristics,and the content of risk management also has new changes.In order to track the context and development trend of software project risk management research,this paper adopts the following methods:using web crawler technology,3129 domestic and foreign software project risk related literature are obtained;using word segmentation and statistical analysis technology,the author,key words,main topics,etc.of the literature are extracted and word frequency analysis is carried out,and the spatial distribution of the research subjects is mined;from the perspective of the published paper number and time,this paper compares and analyzes the study of Chinese and foreign scholars,and combs out the evolution processes of software project risk concept definition,research stage,research methods,etc.Through the analysis of the literature topic,the paper summarizes the research direction and trend of software project risk.Through the above text analysis ideas,we can get the mainstream research methods and development trends in this field.It can be inferred from the change of literature number that there are many researches on software project risk homogenization,and it is difficult to explore the innovative breakthrough of the research,resulting in the decrease of the number of Chinese articles and stagnation.By observing the word cloud visualization of the research team,two main research directions are found:computer and management.How to conduct risk research from the perspective of management has always been the focus of this field.Based on the time sequence literature topic summary,it can be clearly seen that the software project risk research is a project management oriented and risk management-oriented research,and the project management and risk management are integrated to define the concept of software project as the main body.After the theoretical research of software project risk management is relatively mature,related technical researches such as risk assessment,risk identification and risk control begin to rise,then risk management validation research is conducted from the perspective of application.Up to now,risk management still takes assessment as the main research method.Through the co-occurrence analysis of high-frequency words,this paper can find relatively new research directions in lexical association.for example,the process of risk identification is transforming from artificial subjective identification to machine automatic identification,the transformation of attribute characteristics of risk management objects is from static to dynamic,and other cutting-edge researches such as the establishment of risk knowledge base caused by big data technology,the construction of intelligent risk management system,etc.The exploration of research trends will provide new solutions for software project risk prevention and control,improve the success rate of software projects,and provide reference methods for the related research of software project risk.
作者
瞿英
范默苒
刘滨
曹树贵
QU Ying;FAN Moran;LIU Bin;CAO Shugui(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050018,China;Data Science and Business Intelligence Research Center,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050018,China)
出处
《河北科技大学学报》
CAS
2020年第1期88-98,共11页
Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology
基金
河北省社会科学基金(HB18GL045)
河北省科技支撑计划项目(17210104D,18210109D)
河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(ZD2017029,ZD2015099)
河北省高层次人才资助项目(A2016002015)
关键词
管理计量学
软件项目风险
文本分析
演化脉络
文献计量
management metrology
software project risk
text analysis
evolution vein
bibliometrics
作者简介
第一作者:瞿英(1973—),女,江苏南通人,教授,博士,主要从事决策理论与技术、系统评价等方面的研究;通讯作者:曹树贵,副教授。E-mail:652561702@qq.com。
