摘要
光伏发电企业容易受到政策不确定性的影响,本文在上网电价和发电成本不确定条件下建立光伏发电增值税收优惠政策实物期权模型,并在上网电价波动率为零的情况下构建标杆上网电价(固定上网电价)时增值税优惠政策效应实物期权模型。不同于现有税收优惠政策模型仅考虑税收优惠率的影响,本文的实物期权模型新方法包含了税收优惠期因素影响。选取实例数据实证分析表明:增值税优惠政策相当于使得光伏发电投资者每千瓦时多获得0. 007元收益;增值税优惠政策虽能促进光伏发电投资,但是现行的较短税收优惠期并不能给投资者带来更大收益,应延长税收优惠期至2024年。
Energy shortage,environmental pollution and climate issues are the serious problems of the modern society,low-carbon economy,energy conservation and sustainability are becoming the themes of the modern society,and renewable energy is an important way to solve these problems. Renewable energy electricity is the most important application of renewable energy,due to the features that cost of electricity generation of renewable energy is high,the initial investment cost is irreversible and renewable energy is positive externalities,so renewable energy power projects encounter many obstacles in the process of investment. What’s more,it may face many uncertainties in the investment process of the renewable energy,such as uncertainty of feed-in-tariff and investment cost,the uncertain factors reduce the confidence of investors to invest the renewable energy projects,due to these factors,the development of renewable energy electricity highly depends on government’s policies.In order to effectively encourage the development of renewable energy,many countries have carried out various incentive policies of renewable energy,such as subsidies,tax credits and other financial and tax policies,the bidding policy,feed-in-tariff(FIT),premium price,renewable energy portfolio(RPS),renewable energy certificates(RECs),and electricity pricing policy.At the same time,they have also developed the " Renewable Energy Law" and other laws and regulations to focus on various incentive polices. China government has also introduced the " Renewable Energy Law of People’s Republic of China" and other relevant laws,regulations and incentive polices,the implement of incentive policies reduce the cost of renewable energy investments and investment risks with a large extent,and promote renewable energy industry flourish.But the policies are also affected by many factors,especially in the U. S. and Europe. The change of government,different political Parties have disagreement on the development of renewable energy policy,so that all this will lead to policy uncertainty.Policy uncertainty reduces confidence of investor and hinders renewable energy investors to invest,policy uncertainty has become the biggest enemy of renewable energy development.Large current researches about renewable energy policies are renewable energy electricity policies summarized and qualitative analysis,the study of the effect of incentive policies are also deterministic policy. Policy uncertainty has become the lifeblood of the decision of renewable energy development,policy uncertainty on the impact of renewable energy development is becoming the focus of introduction current focus on renewable energy development,domestic policy uncertainty just the text of involving foreign countries have individual scholars began to study the impact of policy uncertainty,but have not yet studied the renewable energy sector.Given the current research,this paper makes use of the optimal investment decision model under uncertainty in real option theory,adds the optimal policy factors in the investment decision model,so that we can research certain policy and uncertain policy affecting on renewable energy enterprises’ investment decisions. Governments’ incentive for renewable energy power development policy mainly include two categories: one policy is to support the renewable energy power generation projects,and the other is price policy on renewable energy. Renewable energy and taxation policies include: subsidies of power projects,tax incentives and bidding;the renewable energy power price policies include: tariff subsidies,fixed feed-in-tariff policy,renewable energy portfolio(RPS),renewable energy certificate(RECs) and renewable energy certificates futures(RECs Futures). According to policy experience of these countries encouraging the development of renewable energy and the conclusions of this paper,which can provide reference for China’s renewable energy policy.In this paper,the preference policy elevation model based on real option theory about solar PV VAT is established,the policy elevation model is established under the condition that both the feed-in tariff and generation cost of solar PV electricity are uncertainty,and the policy elevation model of VAT preference effect is established under the condition that the fluctuation rate of feed-in tariff is equal to zero(the price is fixed of feed-in tariff) in the policy uncertainty model. Different from the existing tax preference policy models,which only consider the impact of tax incentives intensity.We measure the implementation effect of policy by the threshold value of the investment opportunity based on the principle of the best investment decisions. If the incentive policies reduce the chance the threshold value of the investment,then the incentives played a role;If the implementation of policies increase the optimal threshold value investment opportunities under the rules,the policy has increased the chance that companies continue to wait,companies prefer to delay investment opportunities increases,the policy do not play the role of incentives.This paper analyzes the VAT preference effect in a more comprehensive perspective that our new real option pricing approach contains not only the influence of tax incentives intensity,but also the tax preference period. In this paper,the empirical analysis result from the actual data which shows that the current price of benchmarking is lower than the optimal level of investment income of the power generation enterprises. The preference value of VAT is equivalent to the gain of 0. 007 Yuan every KWh. Although the preference policies can promote renewable energy investment,investors cannot get greater returns from the current VAT preference policy in short term. Therefore,the government should increase the tax concession period for nine years to the year of 2024.The main innovation of this paper contains the innovative research perspective and the theoretical model of innovation. The existing research about the investment decision-making principles,basically from the business perspective,research optimal investment strategy of corporate in the context of policy adjusted by government. This paper make the research from the point view of government,and judge whether the investment industry adopted by the government has a positive impact on the overall industry standing. This paper adds the policy variables into investment decision-making model,studies behavior of investors after the implementation of the policy from the perspective of government’s decision-making,and determines the effect of incentive policy.Innovation of theoretical model is that we refine and improve the binary random variable investment decision model that the investment costs and product prices are subject to stochastic process,comprehensively consider the tariff uncertainty and the investment cost uncertainty.
作者
李庆
周艳丽
Li Qing;Zhou Yanli(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,Hubei,China;School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,Hubei,China)
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期234-243,共10页
Science Research Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(青年基金项目):“基于管理者异质信念的实物期权方法在企业价值评估中的应用研究”(17YJC630236)
中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助:“实物期权视角下绿色电力证书交易机制优化设计”(31511911205)
作者简介
通讯作者:李庆(1985-),男(汉),河南信阳人,中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院讲师,研究方向:数量经济学、金融数学;周艳丽(1985-),女(汉),河北石家庄人,中南财经政法大学金融学院副教授,研究方向:保险精算、金融数学。
