摘要
目的分析流行性腮腺炎的流行病学特征,预测其发病趋势,为流腮防控策略的制定提供参考依据。方法基于《传染病报告信息管理系统》中2008-2018年的流腮个案数据,采用描述性、季节指数法、Q型聚类和ARIMA模型进行分析。结果2008-2018年流腮年均发病率为29.01/10万,发病率先上升后下降再回升;呈现明显的季节性双峰分布(即4-7月和11月-次年1月);男性发病率高于女性,病例主要为3~19岁的学生、幼托儿童和散居儿童;年均发病率居前5位的市州分别为神农架林区、十堰市、仙桃市、宜昌市和恩施州;ARIMA模型对流腮的发病数据具有较好的适用性,预测显示2019年的发病时间特征与往年一致,发病率为27.83/10万,较2018年上升5.78%。结论湖北省流腮发病自实施MMR接种后总体呈下降趋势,但近两年呈现回弹态势;以大龄儿童和学生发病为主,呈现季节性发病双峰;山区发病率较高;建议考虑2剂次流腮疫苗的常规免疫策略,加强学校等集体单位流腮的监测和防控。
Objective The study aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict the incidence trend of mumps,then to provide reference for the development of mumps prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the data of mumps from 2008-2018 in the China information system for control and prevention,the descriptive analysis,seasonal index method,Q-type clustering and ARIMA model were used for analysis.Results The average annual incidence of mumps in 2008-2018 was 29.01/100,000.The incidence rate increased first,then decreased and then rose again.There was a clear bimodal seasonality,with higher incidence during April-July and November-January.The incidence of males was higher than that of females.The cases were mainly students,preschool children and scattered children aged 3-19.The cities w让h the highest annual incidence rate were Shennongjia,Shiyan,Xiantao,Yichang and Enshi.The ARIMA model had good applicability to the data of mumps.The prediction showed that the characteristics of onset time in 2019 were consistent with previous years,with an incidence rate of 27.83/100,000,an increase of 5.78%compared with 2018.Conclusion The incidence of mumps in Hubei Province has generally declined since the implementation of MMR vaccination,but it has rebounded in the past two years.It is mainly caused by older children and students,with bimodal seasonality.The incidence rate in mountainous areas is high.2 doses are recommended as the routine immunization strategy.The monitoring and prevention of mumps in collective units such as school should be strengthened.
作者
张鹏
蔡晶
黄淑琼
杨雯雯
ZHANG Peng;CAI Jing;HUANG Shu-qiong;YANG Wen-wen(Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention^Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China)
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第2期203-206,214,共5页
Modern Preventive Medicine
基金
湖北省卫生计生委科研项目（项目名称：湖北省传染病监测系统评价；项目编号：WJ2017M139）
关键词
流行性腮腺炎
流行特征
发病趋势
Hubei Province
Mumps
Epidemiological characteristics
Incidence trend
作者简介
张鹏(1985-),男,主管医师,研究方向:传染病监测和数据挖掘;通讯作者:蔡晶,E-mail:1059782660@qq.com。
