摘要
由于法国的衰弱,传统上的法德轴心一度退化为德国的单独领导。在马克龙当选法国总统并发起"重塑欧洲"倡议后,法德轴心"重启"迎来了契机。本文从意愿和能力两方面,结合欧元区改革、避难体系改革和欧洲共同安全与防务的推进这三个案例,分析法德轴心发挥作用的限度及其影响因素,并展望法德轴心在欧盟未来发展中的角色。结论认为,两国总体上都表现出"重启"法德轴心的意愿。然而,意愿存在差异,法国迫切且强烈,而德国迟滞且具象征性。由于在"重启"法德轴心上未能"同频共振",法德的共同领导力受到削弱。法德轴心"重启"的限度主要受到四个因素的影响:法德可供支配的权力资源有所减少、欧盟决策中"达成共识"的义务在增强、法德难以实现偏好趋同且受制于欧盟内的其他联盟,以及法德的引领作用与其他国家的追随意愿在下降。
In the traditional Franco-German axis,the comparative weakness on the French side had for some time led to an almost exclusive German leadership.After Emmanuel Macron became president of France and proposed an initiative to“relaunch Europe”,the possibility of“restarting”the Franco-German axis gave him an opportunity to change this situation.With the reform of the eurozone and of the asylum system and the furthering of the EU’s common security and defense policy as case studies,this paper analyzes the limits of the role of the Franco-German axis and the relevant influencing factors from the perspectives of both countries’willingness and ability.It also examines the role of this axis in the future development of the EU.This paper concludes that France and Germany,on the whole,have both shown readiness to“restart”the Franco-German axis.Yet differences exist in their willingness,with France demonstrating intense and strong disposition while Germany showing less enthusiasm.A failure for France and Germany to see eye to eye on how to“restart”the axis deteriorates the strength of their common leadership.The limits to this“restart”can also be attributed to the following four factors:the two countries’reduced source of power,the increased need for the EU to reach decisions by consensus,the difficulty for France and Germany in achieving converging preferences while being subjected to other coalitions within the EU,and the decline of the leading role of France and Germany in tandem with the lessened readiness of the other countries to follow suit.
作者
郑春荣
张凌萱
ZHENG Chunrong;ZHANG Lingxuan
出处
《欧洲研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期1-21,M0002,共22页
Chinese Journal of European Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“德国外交政策新动向及我国对策研究”(批准号:14BGJ009)的相关成果
作者简介
郑春荣,同济大学德国问题研究所/ 欧盟研究所教授;张凌萱,同济大学外国语学院博士研究生。
