摘要
实时洪水预报是优化流域防洪减灾方案的重要支撑信息,基于洪水相似性的相似洪水预报是一种延长实时洪水预报预见期的可行途径。为改进灰关联分析法在相似洪水识别与预报中的应用效果,通过引入置信度距离、离势系数权重,加强传统灰关联方法的抗差能力,减少相似性分析过程中的信息损失,并将改进后的方法应用于相似洪水识别与预报过程中,最后结合池潭水库实测雨洪资料进行验证分析,预报精度评价结果表明,该方法预报精度优于传统灰关联分析法,可作为实时洪水预报的辅助方法。
Real-time flood forecasting is important supporting information in optimizing flood control and disaster reduction scheme.Similar flood forecasting can be utilized to extend lead time of real-time flood forecasting.In order to improve the application of gray correlation analysis in similar flood recognition and forecasting,we introduced the confidence distance and the coefficient of variation to enhance robustness and reduce information loss.Aforementioned method was applied in the dynamic similar flood recognition and forecasting in Chitan reservoir,the precision assessment results indicate that the forecasting precision of this method is better than that of the traditional gray correlation analysis method,and it can be used as an auxiliary means for real-time flood forecasting.
作者
林子珩
石朋
钟平安
瞿思敏
纪小敏
崔彦萍
LIN Zi-heng;SHI Peng;ZHONG Ping-an;QU Si-min;JI Xiao-min;CUI Yan-ping(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2020年第1期48-51,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405601)
国家自然科学基金项目(51479062/41730750)
浙江省水利厅科技项目(RA1801)
关键词
改进灰关联分析
相似洪水
置信度
离势系数
improved gray correlation analysis
similar flood
confidence
coefficient of variance
作者简介
林子珩(1996-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为水文物理规律模拟及水文预报,E-mail:xiderowg@foxmail.com;通讯作者:石朋(1976-),男,博士、教授,研究方向为流域水文模拟,E-mail:ship@hhu.edu.cn。
