摘要
为探索城市群水资源对城镇化胁迫力的变化规律,提出天山北坡城市群水资源对城镇化的胁迫力呈倒U形变化的假设,根据2000—2016年面板数据,以城镇化率与用水量的偏离系数为胁迫强度,验证用水量对城镇化率的胁迫力是否符合假设。研究表明:2000—2016年,用水总量对第三产业比重、用水总量对城镇化率、第一产业用水量对城镇化率的胁迫力呈倒V形变化,第一产业用水量对第三产业比重的胁迫力未呈现倒V形变化,水资源对城镇化的胁迫力经历了较强胁迫—强胁迫—弱胁迫(或较强胁迫)的变化过程。与假设不同是,天山北坡城市群水资源对城镇化的胁迫力呈倒V形变化。鉴于天山北坡城市群第一产业用水量对第三产业比重的胁迫力不断增强,如何减少第一产业用水量,是当前需要解决的首要问题。
In order to explore variation laws of water resources stress on urbanization in city group so that to adopt countermeasures,this paper put forward the theoretical hypothesis that water resources stress on urbanization in city group was inverted U-shaped of city group in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain.The paper validated whether water consumption stress on urbanization rate were met with the hypothesis with the urbanization rate and the deviation coefficient according to the panel data from the year of 2000 to 2016.Concluding that changed the law of inverted V-shape on total water consumption stress for proportion of tertiary industry,total water consumption for urbanization rate,the first industry water for urbanization rate from 2000 to 2016,but has not changed inverted V-shape water consumption of primary production stress on proportion of the third industry.Water stress on urbanization has experienced strong stress intensity stress and weak stress(or strong stress)change process.Water stress on urbanization is inverted V shape change with different assumptions city group in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain.But it is worth asking that primary industry water use stress on proportion of tertiary industry has been increasing.There⁃fore,how to reduce the industrial water use is the primary problem to be solved.
作者
聂春霞
秦春艳
NIE Chunxia;QIN Chunyan(Economic Research Institute of Development and Reform Commission in Xinjiang,Urumqi 830002,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第1期57-62,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金资助项目(41661112)
新疆自然科学基金资助项目(2017D01A67)
新疆软科学项目(2017D07012)
关键词
水资源
城镇化
胁迫强度
天山北坡城市群
water resources
urbanization
stress intensity
Tianshan Mountain North Slope City Group
作者简介
聂春霞(1969—),女,甘肃秦安人,副研究员,研究方向为区域经济,E⁃mail:ncx001@sina.com。
