摘要
针对现有电缆线路风险评估模型中风险因素权重毫无弹性,专家主观因素强,且评价体系简单的现状及弊端,提出了一种基于层次分析法的电缆线路风险评估的改进方法。引入层次分析法,综合考虑所在地区的地理位置、经济发展及电缆实际运行环境的差异,通过构建层次结构模型,构造判断矩阵,计算相对权重与一致性检验,分别计算出资产与资产损失各个风险因素的权重。根据得出的电缆线路资产损失风险与运行损失风险求得电缆线路综合风险,依据综合风险值所处的风险区域决定电缆线路状态检修策略。通过具体实例进行验证,该改进方法相比于原有方法更加精确、合理。
In view of the fact that the weight of risk factors in the existing cable line risk assessment model is inflexible, the subjective factors of experts are strong, and the evaluation system is simple, an improved method of cable line risk assessment based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. Firstly, the AHP is introduced to comprehensively consider the geographical location, economic development and the differences of the actual operation environment of the cable. By constructing the hierarchical structure model, the judgment matrix is constructed, the relative weight and consistency test are calculated, and the weights of each risk factor of assets and asset loss are calculated respectively. Then, according to the risk of asset loss and operation loss of cable line, the comprehensive risk of cable line is calculated, and the strategy of condition-based maintenance of cable line is determined according to the risk area of the comprehensive risk value. Finally, an example is given to verify that the improved method is more accurate and reasonable than the original one.
作者
吴明松
黄新波
朱永灿
蒋卫涛
WU Mingsong;HUANG Xinbo;ZHU Yongcan;JIANG Weitao(School of Electronics and Information, Xi′an Polytechnic University, Xi′an 710048, China)
出处
《西安工程大学学报》
CAS
2019年第6期637-642,共6页
Journal of Xi’an Polytechnic University
基金
陕西省重点研发计划项目(2018ZDXM-GY-040)
西安市科技计划项目(201805030YD8CG14(4))
关键词
电缆线路
状态检修
风险评估
层次分析法
资产损失风险
综合风险
cable line
condition-based maintenance
risk assessment
analytic hierarchy process
asset loss risk
comprehensive risk
作者简介
通信作者:黄新波(1975—),男,西安工程大学教授,研究方向为电力设备在线监测理论与关键技术。E-mail:huangxb1975@163.com。
