摘要
根据贵州省1960-2018年17个气象站点的月降水量和平均气温数据,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)定量表征干旱,利用M-K趋势检验及R/S法分析了贵州省近59年干旱变化趋势及未来变化趋势的持续性,采用连续小波变换和交叉小波变换分析贵州省SPEI和4种环流因子(MEI、NAO、AO、PDO)的振荡周期特征及其之间在时频域中的共同特征和相关关系。结果表明:贵州省月、春、秋和年SPEI序列呈显著下降趋势(通过显著性检验),即贵州省春旱和秋旱逐步加剧,其中秋季下降速率最大为-0.108/(10a),而夏旱和冬旱的增加趋势未通过显著性检验;未来春旱和秋旱将保持上升趋势,干旱程度可能愈发严重,而未来夏旱和冬旱强度存在减弱的可能性;干旱事件具有显著的16~48个月的年际振荡周期特征,干旱和四种环流因子的年际共振周期为24~110个月,年代际共振周期为128~250个月,SPEI与NAO、AO之间呈滞后的正相关关系;整体上,MEI主要影响贵州省干旱较短的年际周期变化,PDO和AO主要影响干旱较长的年代际周期变化,而NAO的影响较小。
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)was used to quantitatively characterize the drought conditions based on monthly precipitation and mean temperature data obtained from 17 meteorological stations from 1960-2018 in Guizhou Province.The M-K trend test and R/S analysis were used to analyze the drought trend in Guizhou Province in the past 59 years.The continuous wavelet transform and cross wavelet transform were used to analyze the characteristics of oscillation period of SPEI and four circulation factors(MEI,NAO,AO,PDO),their common characteristics and correlation in time and frequency domain.The results showed that the monthly,spring,autumn and annual SPEI series showed a significant downward trend and the decline-0.108/(10 a)for autumn SPEI compared to other series,which indicated that spring and autumn drought gradually intensify in Guizhou Province.The spring and autumn drought may upward in future and the intensity may become more severe,while the intensity of summer and winter drought expressed a weakened possibility.The SPEI had 16-48 months inter-annual oscillation period,and there was a common patterns of 24-110 month at inter-annual and 128-250 month at inter-decadal oscillation circles between SPEI and MEI,NAO,AO,PDO,while a lag positive correlation existed between SPEI and NAO,AO.Overall,MEI mainly affected the inter-annual cycle variation of drought,while PDO and AO mainly affected the longer inter-decadal cycle variation of drought.
作者
邢广君
崔弼峰
XING Guangjun;CUI Bifeng(Yellow River Conservancy Technical Institute,Kaifeng 475002,China;College of Municipal and Environmental Engineering,Henan University of Urban Construction,Pingdingshan 467000,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第6期75-85,共11页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
关键词
干旱
SPEI
大气环流
交叉小波
连续小波
R/S分析
drought
SPEI
atmospheric circulation
cross wavelet
continuous wavelet
R/S analysis
作者简介
邢广君(1977-),女,河南开封人,讲师,主要从事区域水资源优化配置、水生态安全管理方面研究。E-mail;zfy12367@163.com;通讯作者:崔弼峰(1990-),男,河南濮阳人,助教,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail:792737179@qq.com。
