摘要
对物质财富的追求并非所有决策者的基本需求,企业在对R&D项目投资时的决策行为还受到决策者对项目未来机会价值认知水平的影响。本研究在分析R&D项目中的实物期权特征和价值相互作用的基础上,构建了基于决策者认知水平和完全信息竞争博弈模型,研究表明,当企业决策者认知水平一定的情况下,该企业的最优产品执行价格是其他竞争对手最优产品执行价格的线性增函数;在其他竞争对手最优产品执行价格一定的情况下,随着本企业决策者认知水平的提高,该企业的最优产品执行价格减小,反之亦然;企业可获得的最优效用是该企业决策者认知水平的增函数,是本企业最优产品执行价格的二次函数(先增后减),也是其他竞争对手最优产品执行价格的线性函数;另外,仿真结果进一步给出了各阶段投资额对博弈均衡和最优效用的具体影响机理,企业根据该机理可对各阶段的投资额进行优化。以上结论有助于企业更好地进行R&D项目投资决策。
The pursuit of wealth is not the only basic demand of all enterprises.Decision-makers’cognitive level for R&D projects’future value also influences their investment behaviors.Existing studies still have certain insufficiency.First,the stage division of R&D project has an over-simplification problem,and a few studies analyze the interaction between different stages’real options.Second,most of these studies are qualitative analysis and ignore the influence of decision-makers’bounded rationality.The reason is the complexity of interaction between different stages’real options.Decision behaviors are driven by the pursuit of wealth and decision-makers’cognitive level,management experience,intuition,and emotional emotion.According to the above statements,this study first analyzes the interaction of the characteristics between different stages’real options,then builds a complete information game model considering decision makers’cognitive level to analyze the optimal decision deeply.We combined subjective factors of R&D projects with objective factors to deliver complete research.We find the optimal execution price of a firm is linearly increasing with its competitors’optimal product execution price when decision makers’cognitive level remains constant.The firm’s optimal execution price will decrease with the increase of the cognitive level of the decision-maker when its competitors’optimal product execution price remains constant and vice versa.The firm’s optimal utility is an increasing function of its decision makers’cognitive level.It is also a quadratic function(first increased and then decreased)of the firm’s optimal product execution price and a linear function of its competitors’optimal product execution price.Simulation results make a better understanding of the changing process of the firm’s optimal product execution price under different investments in each stage.The firm’s optimal product execution price first increases and then decreases with the increase of investment in each stage.The investment in the first stage has the greatest impact on the optimal product execution price when investment in each stage increases at the same rate.For optimistic decision makers,the investment in the second stage has a bigger impact on the optimal product execution price than investment in the third stage.When each stage’s investment increases,the variation of all firms’optimal product execution price in the first and second stage is higher than the third stage.Also,simulation results show that investment also affects the optimal utility.Specifically,firms’optimal utility first increased and then decreased when each stage’s investment increased.The first stage’s investment has the greatest influence on the optimal utility if each stage’s investment increases at the same level.Firms with a higher products price,demand and cost can get a higher optimal utility in the first and second stage than the third stage when each stage’s investment increases.Firms with higher potential and realistic demand can obtain a higher optimal utility.In conclusion,there exists a dynamic equilibrium relationship between the optimal product execution price,the optimal utility,the decision-makers cognitive level,and each stage’s investment.To make the perfect strategy,decision-makers should consider not only the competitor's product price and strategy decision but also their cognitive level of real options value.
作者
王超发
孙静春
WANG Chao-fa;SUN Jing-chun(School of Management,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第4期136-143,共8页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71372164)
关键词
R&D项目
竞争博弈
认知水平
投资决策
R&D project
Competition game
Cognitive level
Investment decisions
作者简介
王超发(1986—),男,陕西咸阳人,西安交通大学管理学院在读博士,研究方向:风险管理。
