摘要
基于黑龙江地区不同区域风电场的大量实测数据,对该地区的风速与风电出力特性进行全面分析,并引入威布尔分布、伽马分布、正态分布和对数正态分布4种概率模型,采用极大似然估计法估算各模型参数,对4处不同地区风电场的风速与风电出力进行模拟并比较,确定不同地理位置风电场的最佳拟合概率分布模型。研究表明黑龙江地区的风速具有明显的季节性、时域性和地域性,各场点风电出力具有一定相关性,其自身的随机波动性受时域和地域的影响。
It is foundation for resolving the difficulty of grid-connection of large-scale wind power and the problem of insufficient peak capacity in heating period in North China to master the wind resource potential and the wind power characteristic. Based on the measured data of wind farms in Heilongjiang region,the characteristics of wind speed and wind power output are analyzed in this paper. The paper also introduces four probability density distribution function such as Weibull,Gamma,lognormal and normal. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of each function and the wind speed and the wind power output of the wind farms in different regions are simulated and compared to select the optimal probability distribution model for each farm. The simulation results show that the wind speed in Heilongjiang region has obviously seasonal,temporal and geographical characteristics. Then the wind power output of each wind farm has certain correlation and volatility which is influenced by temporal and geographical factors.
作者
蔡国伟
西禹霏
王艺博
杨德友
陈剑飞
Cai Guowei;Xi Yufei;WangYibo;Yang Deyou;Chen Jianfei(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China;State Grid Heilongjiang Electric Power Company Limited,Harbin 150001,China)
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期3250-3257,共8页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家高技术研究发展（863）计划（SS2014AA052502）
国家自然科学基金（51377017)
关键词
风速
风电出力
风电场
概率分布
特性分析
wind speed
wind power
wind farm
probability distribution
characteristic analysis
作者简介
通信作者:王艺博(1989-),男,博士研究生,主要从事电力系统优化运行与电力变流器方面研究。20162669@neepu.edu.cn。
