摘要
为了探寻不同评价单元对滑坡易发性评价结果准确性的影响,分别将研究区划分为12949个斜坡单元和27017398个网格单元。选取高差、坡度、坡向、坡形、距断层距离、工程地质岩组、距河流距离和距公路距离8个评价因子,采用信息量模型对岷江上游滑坡进行易发性评价。对2413处滑坡灾害点在不同易发性等级中的分布情况进行数理统计和ROC曲线精度检验,结果表明:极高易发区和高等易发等级,网格单元灾害比例为76.92%,斜坡单元为78.82%,网格单元极高易发区灾害点比例比斜坡单元低10%;极高易发区斜坡单元灾害密度比高于网格单元,极低和低易发斜坡单元低于网格单元,斜坡单元的评价结果更为合理;采用ROC曲线对评价结果进行检验,斜坡单元AUC值高于网格单元,斜坡单元能以较小的研究区面积包含较多灾害数量,说明斜坡单元的评价结果比网格单元更为合理与准确。
In order to explore the influence of different evaluation units on the accuracy of the evaluation of landslide vulnerability,the area was divided into 12949 slope units and 27017398 grid units.The paper selected eight factors including altitudes,slopes,aspects,slope shapes,fault distance,engineering geological rock group,water system distance and highway system distance,and evaluated the vulnerability of the upper reaches of Minjiang River based on the information value model.Mathematical statistics and ROC curve accuracy test were conducted on the distribution of 2413 landslide at different levels of susceptibility.The results showed that the proportion of disasters in extremely high prone areas and advanced easy areas,grid units was 76.92%and the slope units were 78.82%,the proportion of disastrous points in extremely high prone areas is 10%lower than that in sloped areas;the density ratio of slope units in extremely vulnerable areas is higher than that in grid units,the slope units in extremely low and low prone areas are lower than that in grid units,and the evaluate result of the slope units are more reasonable.The AUC value of slope units are higher than that of grid units,and the slope units can contain a larger number of disasters in smaller areas,indicating that the evaluation results of slope units are more reasonable and accurate than that of grid units.
作者
田述军
张珊珊
唐青松
樊晓一
韩培锋
TIAN Shujun;ZHANG Shanshan;TANG Qingsong;FAN Xiaoyi;HAN Peifeng(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期137-145,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41971214,41877524)
清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(sklhse-2016-D-04)~~
关键词
滑坡
易发性评价
斜坡单元
网格单元
信息量模型
landslide
susceptibility assessment
slope unit
grid unit
information value model
作者简介
田述军(1980-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事地质灾害危险性评价与预测方面的研究.E-mail:tsj19800702@163.com。
