摘要
为解决维修保障中备件需求预测形式复杂和精度不高的问题,以正态型不可修部件为对象,对备件需求预测方法进行研究。从保障概率的角度出发,介绍与备件保障相关的指标,建立正态型部件保障概率模型,通过逆运算确定满足保障概率条件的备件需求数量,给出寿命服从正态分布的部件备件需求量,通过案例得出精确预测方法和近似预测方法的应用条件。预测结果表明,工程近似方法适合于确定较长时间的备件需求量。
In order to solve the problem of complexity and low-precision in spare parts requirement prediction in maintenance,un-repairable parts obeying normal distribution are taken as objects to analyze the method of predicting spare parts requirement.From the perspective of guarantee probability,the indexes related to spare parts are introduced and the guarantee probability model is established for units obeying normal distribution.Then,the number of spare parts required to meet the guaranteed probability is determined through inverse calculation and the spare parts obeying normal distribution can be determined.Through the case,the application conditions of the accurate prediction method and the approximate prediction method are obtained.The prediction results show that the approximate prediction method is suitable for determining the requirement of spare parts in a long time.
作者
王瑞奇
李志强
顾钧元
付霖宇
Wang Ruiqi;Li Zhiqiang;Gu Junyuan;Fu Linyu(Navy Aviation University,Yantai 264001,China;No.91388 Unit of PLA,Zhanjiang 524022,China)
出处
《兵工自动化》
2019年第11期51-54,共4页
Ordnance Industry Automation
基金
国家自然科学基金(51605487)
关键词
备件需求
保障概率
正态分布
近似估计
spare parts requirement
guaranteed probability
normal distribution
approximate estimation
作者简介
王瑞奇(1980-),男,河南人,博士,从事装备综合保障、质量监控研究。E-mail:52210902@qq.com。
