摘要
利用MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)数据针对不同土地覆盖类型的适用性,提出了一种基于土地覆盖类型的AOD融合方法,生成了一种新的3km AOD数据集.在此基础上,通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型估算了京津冀地区2016年PM2.5浓度,并用交叉验证的方法对模型性能进行评价.结果表明:利用融合后的AOD数据建立的模型可解释PM2.594.85%的浓度变化,交叉验证R 2为0.94,RMSE为9.27μg/m^3,MPE为6.72μg/m^3,明显优于多元线性回归(MLR)模型;基于GWR模型估算的京津冀地区2016年年均PM2.5浓度为58.57μg/m^3,其中冬季PM2.5浓度最高,春秋季次之,夏季浓度最低,PM2.5月均浓度变化范围32.78~140.83μg/m3,8月份浓度最低,12月份浓度最高;空间分布南北差异显著,衡水市PM2.5污染最为严重,张家口市PM2.5浓度较低.利用此方法成功弥补了PM2.5空间缺失,为城市尺度的健康效应和环境流行病学研究提供数据支持.
In this study,a MODIS AOD(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aerosol Optical Depth)combination method was proposed based on land cover type,and a new 3km AOD data set was generated.PM2.5 concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region for the year of 2016 was estimated by the Geographical Weighted Regression(GWR)model,and was evaluated by the method of cross-validation.The results showed that the model established by AOD data after combination could explain 94.85%of the PM2.5 concentration change,with the cross-validation R2 of 0.94,the RMSE of 9.27μg/m^3,and the MPE of 6.72μg/m^3.These values were significantly better than that of the multiple linear regression(MLR)model;Based on the GWR model,average annual PM2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 58.57μg/m3,with the highest concentration of PM2.5 in winter,followed by spring and autumn,and the concentration in summer was the lowest.The monthly average concentration of PM2.5 varied from 32.78 to 140.83μg/m^3,the lowest and the highest concentrations were estimated in August and in December,respectively.The spatial distribution was significant compared with north part from south,the PM2.5 pollution in Hengshui City was the most serious,PM2.5 concentration was the lowest in Zhangjiakou.This method successfully compensated for the lack of PM2.5 space and provided data support for urban-scale health effects and environmental epidemiological studies.
作者
付宏臣
孙艳玲
王斌
陈莉
张辉
高爽
毛健
景悦
邵丝露
FU Hong-chen;SUN Yan-ling*;WANG Bin;CHEN Li;ZHANG Hui;GAO Shuang;MAO Jian;JING Yue;SHAO Si-lu(College of Geography and Environment Science,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China;Tianjin Eco-Environmental Monitoring Center,Tianjin 300191,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期4530-4537,共8页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0201700)
天津市科技计划项目(16YFXTSF00330)
天津市自然科学基金资助项目(17JCYBJC42900)
作者简介
付宏臣(1995-),女,天津人,天津师范大学硕士研究生,主要从事大气环境遥感研究.发表论文2篇;责任作者:孙艳玲,副教授,flyling99@163.com。
