摘要
针对黄河下游封冻河段不稳定、凌情复杂的问题,依据1950~2017年黄河下游历史冰情资料,运用线性倾向估计法统计分析了该河段冰凌特征变化,并分析了影响冰情的主要因素。结果表明,黄河下游冰凌特征变化为单个凌汛期内封、开河频次不稳定;封河长度、封河天数、最大冰量均有显著下降;封河流量、开河流量明显减小;封河气温明显上升。受多种因素共同影响,1999年小浪底水库运用后下游冰情发生了明显变化,主要表现为流凌日期推迟6d,首封日期提前1d,开河日期提前8d,封河天数减少7d,封河长度缩短140km,封冻冰量减少约77%,不封河年频率由14.3%增加到31.6%等。研究结果为黄河下游河道未来防洪最不利标准的设定提供凌汛条件。
The lower reaches of the Yellow River are seldom-freeze-up reaches with complex ice status.Based on the historical ice regime data of the lower reaches of the Yellow River from 1950 to 2017,the changes of ice regime characteristics was statistically analyzed by linear trend estimation method,and the main influencing factors were analyzed.The results show that the characteristics of ice regime in the lower reaches of the Yellow River are as follows:The frequency of freeze-up and break-up were unstable in a single ice flood season.The length of freeze-up river sections,the number of days of freeze-up river sections and the maximum ice volume all decreased significantly.The freeze-up flow and break-up flow decreased obviously.The temperature of the freeze-up increased obviously.After the operation of Xiaolangdi reservoir in 1999,the ice regime changed obviously due to the influence of various factors.The ice-run date delayed 6 d,the first freeze-up date advanced 1 d,break-up date moved up 8 d,freeze-up days reduced 7 d,freeze-up length shorten 140 km,ice amount decreased around 77%,and the frequency of none-frozen increased from 14.3%to 31.6%.This study provides ice flood conditions for setting of the most unfavorable flood control standards in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.
作者
刘强
冀鸿兰
张宝森
李春江
牟献友
LIU Qiang;JI Hong-lan;ZHANG Bao-sen;LI Chun-jiang;MOU Xian-you(School of Hydraulic&Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2019年第11期19-23,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402501)
国家自然科学基金项目(51569020)
关键词
黄河下游
凌情特征
小浪底水库
统计分析
the lower reaches of the Yellow River
ice regime characteristics
Xiaolangdi Reservoir
statistical analysis
作者简介
刘强(1993-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为寒区河冰过程与河流泥沙运动力学,E-mail:1906399004@qq.com;通讯作者:冀鸿兰(1970-),女,博士、教授、博导,研究方向为寒区河冰过程与河流泥沙运动力学,E-mail:honglanji@sina.com。
