摘要
针对当前国内水质低频监测的现状以及河流污染通量计算方法的缺陷,为了提高河流污染通量估算成果的合理性与可信度,将LOADEST污染通量估算模型与卡尔曼滤波校正算法相结合提出一种新的河流污染通量估算方法。基于LOADEST模型的污染通量过程预估,通过建立污染物通量与流量之间的回归方程,利用逐日高频流量数据预估出波动变化的逐日污染通量过程;基于卡尔曼滤波的污染通量过程校正,对通量实测值与基于LOADEST模型的通量预估值进行同化,减小最终估算值与实测值之间的误差。新方法应用于淮河干流蚌埠闸断面2012年污染通量的估算,氨氮和高锰酸盐指数通量过程的估算值与高频水污染联防监测值吻合较好,判定系数R^2分别为0.78和0.99,累计通量相对偏差分别为1.71%和5.57%。研究结果表明,新方法在不增加数据需求的同时能合理可信的估算河流污染通量的变化过程,可弥补月单值法、线性插值法、污染负荷过程模型法估算河流污染通量的不足与缺陷。
Targeting at the status of the low-frequency monitoring on water quality and the defects of the calculation methods for river pollution flux in China,a new method for estimating the river pollution flux is proposed herein through combining the LOADEST pollution flux estimation model with the Kalman Filtering correction algorithm,so as to enhance the reasonability and reliability of the estimation result of river pollution flux.Based on the pre-estimation of the pollution flux process from the LOADEST model,the fluctuated daily pollution flux processes are pre-estimated with the daily high-frequency discharge data by establishing the regression equation between the pollutant flux and the discharge,while the measured value of the flux and the pre-estimated value from LOADEST model are assimilated in accordance with the Kalman Filtering correction of the pollution flux process for reducing the error between the final pre-estimated value and the measured one.The new method is applied to the estimation on pollution flux passing through the cross-section of Bengbu Sluice on the main stream of Huaihe River in 2012,from which the estimation values of the flux processesof ammonia and the permanganate index are better coincided with the values from the high-frequency water pollution joint-monitoring with the determination coefficients R^2 of 0.78 and 0.99 respectively and the relative errors of the cumulative flux of 1.71%and 5.57%respectively.The study result indicates that the changing process of river pollution flux can be reasonably and reliably estimated by the new method without increasing date demand,which can make up the deficiencies and defects from the estimations of river pollution flux made by monthly single value method,linear interpolation method and pollution load process model.
作者
陈炼钢
陈俊鸿
陈黎明
徐祎凡
施勇
CHEN Liangang;CHEN Junhong;CHEN Liming;XU Yifan;SHI Yong(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
北大核心
2019年第10期138-144,共7页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402207)
国家自然科学基金项目(51679143,41601376)
作者简介
陈炼钢(1981—),男,高级工程师,博士,主要从事河湖水沙-生态环境协变与调控研究。E-mail:lgchen@nhri.cn。
