摘要
重点研究了1983-2002年的西北太平洋台风最佳路径数据资料集,运用Python编程语言,编写聚类分析程序,对台风数据进行聚类分析。通过资料中包含的台风强度、中心位置坐标的台风路径特征参数,利用K均值聚类法对西北太平洋台风路径进行客观地分类,分类数选定为6类。比较各类台风路径类型的生成位置、强度、气候趋势等特征,为台风路径的气候预测提供有用的信息。结果主要表明:6类台风包含4类转向路径台风和两类西北偏西的直行路径台风;直行路径台风几乎全部影响我国,转向路径中只有1类台风主要影响我国;从各类台风发生的频数来看,两类直行路径台风均呈下降趋势,有3类转向路径台风呈上升趋势。
This paper conducts a clustering analysis on the typhoon optimal track data from 1983 to 2002 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean using Python programming language. Based on the typhoon intensity and center coordinates, the typhoon tracks are objectively classified into six categories using K-means clustering method. It is helpful in predicting typhoon track to compare the formation location, intensity and climate trend of each typhoon category. The results show that the typhoon tracks consist of four types of direction-turning typhoon and two types of non-turning typhoon. Nearly all the non-turning typhoon affects China, while only one type of the direction-turning typhoon affect China.. As for the frequency of each type of typhoon, two types of the nonturning typhoon show a decreasing trend, while three types of the direction-turning typhoon show an increasing trend.
作者
彭跃华
易大江
王挺
王苏
刘博
PENG Yue-hua;YI Da-jiang;WANG Ting;WANG Su;LIU Bo(Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian 116018 China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China;National Supercomputing Center in Changsha,Changsha 410082 China;No.61741 Army of PLA,Beijing 100094 China;No.92730 Army of PLA,Sanya 572000 China)
出处
《海洋预报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期63-70,共8页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家重点研发计划（2017YFB0203705）
作者简介
彭跃华(1985-),男,讲师,硕士,主要从事热带海洋气象学研究。E-mail:pengyuehua303@163.com;通讯作者:易大江(1975-),男,工程师,博士,主要从事信息工程和海洋气象数值模拟研究。E-mail:604553647@qq.com。
