摘要
[目的/意义]从系统视角把握“舆情-抢购”链式危机的演化规律和防控策略,对提高社会风险的预警及时性和治理能力具有重要意义。[方法/过程]首先结合实际提出了研究假设,构建了包含舆情形成子系统、负面舆论聚集子系统和民众抢购子系统的系统动力学模型。其次,以2011年日本核泄漏事件中的“舆情-抢购碘盐”危机为例进行了案例分析,通过提炼和仿真该危机演化趋势的量化指标,验证了模型的有效性。最后,考查了主要可控因素的影响,并据此给出了制定防控方案的策略启示。[结果/结论]模型可较好地刻画“舆情-抢购”事件链危机的演化过程;从对危机指标影响的灵敏度分析可知,意见领袖作用最高,媒体影响率次之,政府响应时间较低。
[Purpose/Significance]For improving the early warning timeliness and governance ability of social risks,it is of significance to grasp the evolution law and prevention and control strategies of the chain crisis of"public opinion-panic buying"from system perspective.[Method/Process]Assumptions are first given in combination with real cases,and a system dynamics model including three subsystems,i.e.,the formation of public opinion,gathering of negative public opinion and panic buying of the masses,is put forward.Then,the crisis of"public opinion-panic buying of iodized salt"resulted from Japan's nuclear leak in 2011 is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model by refining and simulating indexes of evolutionary trends.Finally,the impact of key factors that could be controlled is tested to present strategic implications.[Result/Conclusion]The proposed model could well depict the evolution of"public opinion-panic buying"crisis;The sensitivity analysis of the impact of key factors on the indexes of this crisis shows that the role of opinion leaders is the highest,the influence rate of media is the second,and the response time of government is relatively low.
作者
王治莹
王伟康
Wang Zhiying;Wang Weikang(School of Management Science&Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan,243032)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第11期119-125,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“多种诱导信息情境下突发公共事件舆情演进规律及其干预机制研究”(编号:71704001)；；安徽省自然科学基金项目“重大灾害情境下‘舆情-抢购’危机演化机理与防控决策研究”(编号:1808085QG224)研究成果之一
关键词
舆情
抢购
链式危机
防控策略
系统动力学
public opinion
panic buying
chain crisis
prevention and control strategies
system dynamics
作者简介
王治莹(ORCID:0000-0002-3134-977X),男,1987年生,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:应急管理;王伟康(ORCID:0000-0001-5806-0696),男,1991年生,硕士研究生,研究方向:应急管理。
