摘要
随着可再生能源的发展,电力系统中不确定性因素增多。精确地模拟可再生能源场景,对大规模新能源并网调度、规划有着重要意义。针对该问题,提出一种基于Wasserstein概率距离的场景约简0-1规划模型。并对聚类有效性指标进行分析,提出包含内部有效性及外部有效性的指标体系,依据聚类有效性指标确定最佳聚类数。算例以爱尔兰岛风电预测–实测数据为基础生成初始场景集,根据聚类有效性指标确定的最佳聚类数对初始场景进行场景约简,验证了所提方法的合理性与有效性。对比分析了传统场景约简方法,结果表明,场景约简0-1规划模型有着更好的精准性与适用性。
With the development of renewable energy,uncertainties increase in power system. Accurate simulation renewable energy scenarios will have a great significance to scheduling optimal and power planning of large-scale new energy integration. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposed a scenario reduction 0-1 program model based on Wasserstein probability distance. Through analyzing the cluster validity index, proposed the cluster index system which includes internal validity and external validity. The optimal cluster number was determined according to the cluster validity index. In the example, initial scenario set was generated on the basis of Irish island wind power forecast-measured history data,scenario reduction according to the optimal cluster number that determined by the cluster validity index, proved the rationality and validity of this method. Compared and analyzed the traditional scenario reduction methods. The results show that the scenario reduction model proposed in this paper has high accuracy and applicability.
作者
董骁翀
孙英云
蒲天骄
陈乃仕
孙珂
DONG Xiaochong;SUN Yingyun;PU Tianjiao;CHEN Naishi;SUN Ke(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Changping District, Beijing 102206, China;China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China;State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co. Ltd., Changping District, Beijing 102209, China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第16期4650-4658,共9页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0903300)
国家自然科学基金项目(51777065)~~
作者简介
董骁翀(1995),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为最优化理论及其在电力系统中的应用,dream_dxc@163.com;通信作者:孙英云(1975),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向为新能源接入,电力系统优化与控制,sunyy@ncepu.edu.cn.
