摘要
为探讨岩溶区流域降雨径流变化特征,基于澄碧河流域1963年至2011年共49a的降雨径流序列,运用Mann-Kendall方法、Hurst指数法和双累积曲线法分别进行趋势及突变分析、序列未来的趋势预测分析和降雨径流变化产生的影响分析,在此基础上,结合流域的历史及地质资料探讨降雨径流关系发生变化的成因。结果表明:①流域降雨量的年际、汛期以及非汛期序列均呈现显著增加的趋势,且年降雨量的突变年为1986年,而径流量的非汛期序列却呈现显著减少的趋势,并在1990年发生突变;②流域的降雨径流相关关系发生了变化,流域水资源量减少达到12亿m3/a;③流域内降雨径流的变化是由人类活动、喀斯特岩溶性的地质构造特征和降雨分布特点导致的。
For studying the change characteristics of precipitation-runoff for a karst basin, a 49-year (1963-2011) precipitation-runoff data of Chengbihe Basin was analyzed.The Mann-Kendall method was used to identify the trends and abrupt change points of the precipitation and runoff series. And then the Hurst Exponent method was applied to predict the trends for the future series. Finally the influences of variation between precipitation-runoff were discussed by using the Double Mass Curve method, and the cause of the precipitation-runoff relationship change was studied depending on the historical and geological information. The results show that:①The precipitation of annual, flood season and non flood season all were significantly increased, and mutation time of annual precipitation sequence was 1986. While non flood season runoff showed a significant decreasing trend, and the abrupt change occurred in 1990.②The correlation of precipitation-runoff was changed in Basin, reduction of water resources by 1 200 million m 3/a.③It was found that the above phenomenon is due to human activities, Karst geological structure and characteristics of precipitation distribution in the basin. Therefore, some suggestions of water environment improvement and water resources management for Chengbihe Basin were put forward.
作者
莫崇勋
朱新荣
刘朋
杨庆
阮俞理
孙桂凯
MO Chong-xun;ZHU Xin-rong;LIU Peng;YANG Qing;RUAN Yu-li;SUN Gui-kai(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Nanning 530004, China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning 530004, China)
出处
《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第4期1171-1176,共6页
Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51569003,51609041)
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2017GXNSFAA198361)
作者简介
通讯作者:莫崇勋(1974-),男(壮族),广西忻城人,广西大学教授,博士生导师;E-mail:513882593@qq.com。
