摘要
利用金沙江上游1954年~2013年的径流资料及相应的气象资料,运用线性回归、5a滑动平均、M-K突变分析、累积距平等方法探究了金沙江上游径流的变化特点及其与当地气候之间的联系。分析表明,1954年~2013年间上游年径流量呈微弱的下降趋势,而年降雨量和年平均气温均呈明显的增加趋势;年径流量、年降雨量与年平均气温在分析时段内均无突变点;年降雨与径流呈显著正相关,而气温对径流量的影响比较小。气候变化对该区域径流变化的影响十分显著。
Based on the runoff data from 1954 to 2013 in the upper reaches of Jinsha River and the corresponding meteorological data, the characteristics of runoff change in the upper reaches of Jinsha River and its relationship with local climate are explored by using linear regression, 5a moving average method, M-K catastrophe analysis and cumulative distance equality method respectively. The analyses show that:(a) the annual runoff in the upper reaches of Jinsha River decreases slightly from 1954 to 2013, while the annual rainfall and annual average temperature increase significantly;(b) there is no mutation point in the changes of annual runoff, annual rainfall and annual average temperature in the analysis period;and (c) there is a significant positive correlation between annual rainfall and runoff, and the influence of temperature on runoff is relatively smaller. The impact of climate change on runoff change in this region is very significant.
作者
魏晓玥
黄晓荣
潘荦
张浪
WEI Xiaoyue;HUANG Xiaorong;PAN Luo;ZHANG Lang(College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065,Sichuan, China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Development and Protection, Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065, Sichuan, China)
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2019年第8期12-17,共6页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51579161)
关键词
径流变化
气候
响应
金沙江
runoff change
climate
response
Jinsha River
作者简介
魏晓玥(1996-),女,四川达州人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源方面的研究;通讯作者:黄晓荣.
