摘要
为探究我国沿海与内陆干散货市场航运价格波动的相关性,以促进我国区域干散货航运市场发展,结合我国航运市场的实际情况,选用长江运价指数和上海航交所的相关数据,建立向量自回归模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:内河与沿海干散货航运市场运价之间存在联动关系,并且两种市场之间波动存在滞后性;内河与沿海干散货航运市场的价格波动均受到季节因素的影响;沿海干散货市场对内河干散货市场的价格波动冲击更大;燃油价格、煤炭运价等因素对内河和沿海干散货航运市场的影响较大。基于此,本文得出促进内河和沿海干散货航运市场发展的政策启示。
In order to explore the correlation between the shipping price fluctuations of China’s coastal and inland dry bulk markets, to promote the development of China’s regional dry bulk shipping market, combined with the actual situation of China’s shipping market, select the Yangtze River Freight Index and relevant data of Shanghai Stock Exchange. Establish a vector autoregressive model for empirical analysis. The results show that there is a linkage between the inland river and coastal dry bulk shipping market freight rates, and there is a lag between the two markets;the price fluctuations of the inland river and coastal dry bulk shipping markets are affected by seasonal factors;The dry bulk market has a greater impact on the price fluctuations of the inland dry bulk market;factors such as fuel prices and coal freight rates have a greater impact on the inland river and coastal dry bulk shipping markets. Based on this, this paper draws policy implications for promoting the development of the inland river and coastal dry bulk shipping market.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第3期73-76,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目编号71603054)
福建省社会科学规划项目一般项目(项目编号FJ2016B080)
关键词
航运市场
干散货航运价格指数
海运价格
向量自回归模型
Shipping market
Dry bulk shipping price index
Shipping price
Vector autoregressive model
