摘要
为了预测滑坡的滑程,基于国内外343个典型灾难性滑坡数据资料,通过统计方法对滑坡最大垂直距离H与最大水平距离L、等效摩擦系数H/L与滑坡体积对数LgV之间的关系以及不同岩质类型滑坡对应的等效摩擦系数和滑坡体积分布区间进行了分析,提出了基于统计方法的滑坡滑程预测模型,并结合工程实例对滑程预测模型进行了验证分析。分析表明:滑坡最大垂直距离H与最大水平距离L具有良好的正幂律关系;等效摩擦系数H/L与滑坡体积Log(V)之间呈现出负指数关系,且同一种类的岩质材料的滑坡数据点分布没有表现出明显的规律性。根据统计结果,提出基于滑坡面积A和滑坡最大垂直高度H的滑程预测模型,并将该预测模型应用到深圳市光明新区渣土受纳场"12·20"滑坡事故。结果表明,虽然预测结果与实际滑程之间存在差异,但该模型在一定程度上仍能有效反映及预测滑坡滑程。
The slippage of landslide has important practical significance for landslide disaster prevention and mitigation. In order to predict the slippage of landslide, 343 typical landslide data at home and abroad are used. The relationship between the maximum vertical distance H and the maximum horizontal distance L , the equivalent friction coefficient H/L and the landslide volume logarithm lg V , the equivalent friction coefficient and the landslide volume distribution of different rock type landslides were studied by statistical method. The interval is analyzed, a landslide slip prediction model based on statistical method is proposed, and the model is verified and analyzed with engineering examples. The analysis results show that there is a good positive power law relationship between the maximum vertical distance H and the maximum horizontal distance L , and there is a negative exponential relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient H/L and the landslide volume lg V . The distribution of landslide data points of the same kind of rock materials shows no obvious regularity. Based on the statistical results, a slippage prediction model based on the landslide area A and the maximum vertical height H of the landslide is put forward, and the model is applied to the “12 · 20” Shenzhen Guangming landslide accident. The results show that although there is a difference between the predicted results and the actual slippage, the model can effectively reflect and predict the landslide slippage to some extent.
作者
尉德新
黄涛
张运强
邢静康
周苏华
WEI Dexin;HUANG Tao;ZHANG Yunqiang;XING Jingkang;ZHOU Suhua(CCCC First Harbor Engineering Company Ltd., Tianjin 300450, China;College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China)
出处
《路基工程》
2019年第2期212-219,共8页
Subgrade Engineering
基金
北京市科技计划(Z181100003918005)
国家自然科学基金青年基金(51708199)
贵州省交通运输厅科技项目(2017-143-054)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(531107050969)
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2011CB710601)
关键词
滑坡灾害
统计方法
等效摩擦系数
滑程预测
landslide disaster
statistical method
equivalent friction coefficient
slippage prediction
作者简介
尉德新(1979-),男,山东莱阳人。工程师,主要从事工程施工管理工作。E-mail:56289898@qq.com.
