摘要
为评估山东省莱西市奶牛场(户)通过从牛结核病(bTB)感染地区引进奶牛传播bTB的风险,对该市奶牛场(户)进行了流行病学调查,绘制了奶牛引进的风险路径图,设定了风险评估模型相关参数;使用Microsoft Excel和@Risk软件进行模拟,对定量风险评估模型进行了不确定性和敏感性分析。结果显示,该市奶牛场(户)从感染地区引进1头奶牛传播bTB的概率为2.93×10^(-3)(95%CI:1.14×10^(-3)～8.25×10^(-3));引进50头奶牛至少有1头感染bTB的概率为0.137(95%CI:0.056～0.339);敏感性分析显示,暴露于感染动物、群流行率和隔离措施对奶牛引进时传播bTB的风险影响较大。结果提示,引进奶牛时应严格隔离并延长隔离时间,同时在混群前再进行1次bTB检测,混群后实施严格消毒并加强监测,这样可以降低引进奶牛时传播bTB的风险。
In order to assess the spreading risk of bovine tuberculosis(bTB)via introducing dairy cows from infected areas into Laixi City of Shandong Province,an epidemiological investigation was conducted in related dairy farms (households),the risk pathway was drawn,and relevant parameters of risk assessment model were set. The uncertainty and sensitivity of quantitative risk assessment model were analyzed through simulating by Microsoft Excel and @Risk software. The results showed that the probability of bTB spreading by introducing one cow was 2.93×10-3 (95% CI:1.14×10-3–8.25×10-3). When 50 cows were introduced,the probability of at least one cow being infected with bTB was 0.137(95%CI:0.056–0.339);the sensitive analysis indicated that the main influential parameters were exposure to infected animals,herd prevalence and isolation measures. It was concluded that the introduced dairy cows should be strictly quarantined,and the quarantine time should be extended,meantime,the introduced cows should be tested for bTB again before joining the population,and then strictly disinfection and surveillance should be carried out,so as to reduce the risk of bTB spreading by introduced cows.
作者
刘爱玲
马清霞
韩雪
沈朝建
康京丽
张毅
王幼明
Liu Ailing;Ma Qingxia;Han Xue;Shen Chaojian;Kang Jingli;Zhang Yi;Wang Youming(China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center,Qingdao,Shandong 266032,China;Qingdao Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center,Qingdao,Shandong 266071,China;Beijing Vital River Laboratory Animal Technology Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100107,China)
出处
《中国动物检疫》
CAS
2019年第3期18-22,共5页
China Animal Health Inspection
基金
中国兽医现场流行病学培训项目
关键词
牛结核病
定量风险评估
模型
bovine tuberculosis
quantitative risk assessment
model
