摘要
铁路"走出去"项目是我国近年来海外发展的重点,为了降低铁路"走出去"项目建设风险,通过阐述铁路"走出去"项目建设特点,针对海外铁路建设中所遇到各项风险因素,综合各方专家打分,构建铁路"走出去"项目建设风险评估指标体系。采用层次分析法和灰色模糊评估法,建立铁路"走出去"项目建设风险评估模型,结合海外工程项目案例进行风险评估验证。评估结果表明,运用层次分析法计算指标的权重,利用灰色模糊评估法对风险指标进行等级评价,解决了评价的模糊性和不确定性问题,可以为铁路海外项目风险评估及防范提供支撑。
The railway“go-global”project is a focus of China’s overseas development in recent years.To reduce the risk of railway“go-global”project construction,the risk evaluation index system for overseas railway construction projects is established after the elaboration of the project features in view of the various risk factors encountered in the construction of overseas railway projects and integrating the scores of all experts.The analytic hierarchy process and the grey fuzzy theory are used to build a risk assessment model,which is then verified with the cases of overseas projects.The verification results show that using the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight of the indicators and using the grey fuzzy evaluation method to grade the risk indicators solves the ambiguity and uncertainty of the factor evaluation.This can provide the support for risk assessment and prevention of railway overseas projects.
作者
金晶
李宗昊
朱亮
杨长卫
JIN Jing;LI Zonghao;ZHU Liang;YANG Changwei(Postgraduate Department, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;School of CivilEngineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China;Department of Science, Technologyand IT Application, China Railway Corporation, Beijing 100844, China)
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2019年第2期82-87,共6页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2017T001-I)
关键词
海外铁路项目
风险评估
层次分析法
灰色模糊评估法
案例分析
Overseas Railway Project
Risk Assessment
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Grey Fuzzy Theory
Case Study
