摘要
根据鄱阳湖流域11个代表站1470-2014年旱涝史料,在旱涝等级法和面积加权法的基础上得到各站点和区域集成的旱涝等级序列。利用现代降水距平序列和旱涝等级回归模型,定量重建了11个站点和鄱阳湖流域区域集成的1470-2014年逐年降水量序列。可靠性检验表明,在α=0.01显著性水平下,模型预测的南昌站降水量序列与实测值之间的相关系数为0.606。降水变化趋势的空间分析表明,赣州、鄱阳和星子的线性倾向值为负值,降水呈现下降趋势;其他各站线性倾向值为正值,降水呈现上升趋势。阶段性和突变性检验结果表明鄱阳湖流域降水在1630年、1870-1880前后发生转变,且都为由涝转旱的过渡阶段。周期谱分析和蒙特卡洛功率谱分析的结果表明,1470-2014年鄱阳湖流域降水具有2~4年和5~7年的高频波动周期;17~22年的中频波动周期;80年、120~160年、250年以上的低频波动周期。通过对比可以发现,本文基于旱涝史料重建的逐年降水量数据,可以为相关气候模式的开发以及旱涝灾害研究提供基础数据和模型边界。
Based on the existing historical documents and other literatures about drought and flood on 11 stations in the region of Poyang lake basin from 1470 to 2104,drought-flood index series of 11 stations and Poyang lake basin constructed by drought and flood rank method and area weighting method.Using the modern precipitation anomaly sequence and the drought and flood grade to build a regression model,the series of 1470-2014 annual precipitation in 11 sites and Poyang Lake Basin reconstructed quantitatively.The reliability test shows that the correlation coefficient between the precipitation series and the measured precipitation of the Nanchang station is 0.606 at the significance level ofα=0.01.The spatial analysis of the trend of precipitation shows that the linear tendency of Ganzhou,Poyang and Xingzi is negative and the precipitation is decreasing during 1470-2014,and the linear tendency of the other stations is positive and the precipitation is increasing.The results of the stage and abrupt test show that the precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin occurred in 1630 and at the period from 1870 to 1880,which were transitional stages of flood and drought.The results of Circular spectral analysis and Monte Carlo power spectrum analysis show that the precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin from 1470 to 2014 has a high frequency fluctuation cycle of 2-4 years and 5-7 years;17-22 years of intermediate frequency fluctuation cycle;and 80 years,120-160 years,more than 250 years of low frequency fluctuation cycle.It found that the reconstructed precipitation could provide the basic data and model boundary for the development of climate model in the future.
作者
万智巍
蒋梅鑫
洪祎君
贾玉连
WAN Zhiwei;JIANG Meixin;HONG Yijun;JIA Yulian(Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education,School of Geography and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期93-98,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金(41761045)
江西省自然科学基金(20161BAB213075)
鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室开放基金(PK2015003)
江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心项目(JXS-EW-00)
关键词
旱涝
灾害史料
历史水文
降水量重建
鄱阳湖流域
drought and flood
historical data
historical hydrology
precipitation reconstruction
Poyang lake basin
作者简介
第一作者:万智巍(1984-),男,江西南昌人,博士,讲师,主要从事全球变化研究.E-mail:wzw3392008@sina.com;通讯作者:蒋梅鑫(1961-),男,江西泰和人,教授,研究方向为可持续发展.E-mail:jiangmx610519@126.com
