摘要
用电量预测对电力工作的经济运行具有重大意义。收集南京市工业用电量的历史数据,通过典型预测模型的比选,选择离散GM(1,1)建立南京市工业用电量预测模型,对预测结果进行检验,并预测南京市2017—2021年的工业用电量,研究认为南京市工业用电量逐年增加,增加率趋于稳定。
The forecast of electricity consumption is of great significance to the economic operation of electric power work.The historical data of industrial electricity consumption in Nanjing are collected,and the forecasting model of industrial electricity consumption in Nanjing is established by selecting the discrete GM(1,1)and comparing the typical forecasting model.The prediction results are tested and the industrial electricity consumption from 2017 to 2021 in Nanjing is forecasted,the results of which help to provide a reference for the development of industrial electricity market in Nanjing.
作者
陈洁
吕豪杰
CHEN Jie;LV Hao-jie(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China)
出处
《南京工程学院学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第1期50-54,共5页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Technology：Social Science Edition
基金
江苏省社会科学基金(13EYD024)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队建设项目(2017ZSTD075)
江苏省哲学社会科学研究项目(2014SJB228)
关键词
工业用电量
用电量预测
GM(1
1)模型
industrial electricity consumption
electricity consumption forecast
GM(1,1)model
作者简介
陈洁,博士,副教授,研究方向为产业技术经济分析。E-mail:chenjiefs@126.com。
