摘要
利用蒙特卡洛模拟对井壁稳定性模型中随机变量与结果的相互关系进行分析,获取了不同应力场和破坏准则下影响井壁稳定性最为敏感的因素。通过分析可知,基于Mohr-Coulomb准则的坍塌压力,无论处于哪种地应力场,最为敏感的因素都是最大水平地应力;基于Drucker-Prager准则的坍塌压力,当垂应力为最大主应力时,最为敏感的因素是孔隙压力;当垂向应力为中间主应力或最小主应力时,最为敏感的因素均为内摩擦角;地层破裂压力无论处于哪种地应力场,最为敏感的因素均为最小水平地应力。通过研究确定了影响井壁稳定可靠度最为敏感的因素,通过相应的措施提高敏感因素的准确程度,从而减少坍塌及破裂压力预测结果的不确定性,最终提高井壁稳定的可靠度。
The relationships between random variables and results of borehole stability model were analyzed by means of Monte-Carlo simulation to figure out the most sensitive factors affecting borehole stability under different stresses and failure criteria.It is indicated that based on the collapse pressure of Mohr-Coulomb criteria,the most sensitive factor in any ground stress field is always the maximum horizontal ground stress.Based on the collapse pressure of Drucker-Prager criteria,the most sensitive factor is pore pressure when the vertical stress is the maximum major stress,and it is the internal friction angle when the vertical stress is the medium or the minimum major stress.The most sensitive factor of formation fracture pressure in any ground stress field is always the minimum horizontal stress.After the most sensitive factors affecting the reliability of borehole stability were defined,the accuracy degree of sensitive factors was improved by taking the measures correspondingly,so that the uncertainty of predicted collapse and fracture pressures is decreased and the reliability of borehole stability is ultimately improved.
作者
胜亚楠
管志川
罗鸣
李文拓
巨然
SHENG Ya’nan;GUAN Zhichuan;LUO Ming;LI Wentuo;JU Ran(School of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China;Zhanjiang Branch,CNOOC China Limited,Zhanjiang 524057,Guangdong,China)
出处
《石油钻采工艺》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期14-19,共6页
Oil Drilling & Production Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"隔水管内气液两相流声传播特性与深水钻井气侵监测方法"(编号:51574275)
"十三五"中国海洋石油总公司科技重大项目"莺琼盆地高温高压钻井关键技术研究"(编号:CNOOC-KJ 135 ZDXM 24 LTD ZJ 01)
作者简介
胜亚楠(1989-),中国石油大学(华东)油气井工程在读博士生,主要从事钻井工程风险评价,井身结构优化设计和油气井井下信息控制等方面的研究工作。通讯地址:(266580)山东青岛市黄岛区长江西路66号中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院。E-mail:shengyanan_upc@163.com;通讯作者:管志川(1959-),1995年获石油大学(北京)工学博士学位,现主要从事油气井管柱力学、井下信息传输技术、深井超深井井身结构设计及提速工具的研发和深井风险评价等方面的研究,教授、博士生导师。通讯地址:(266580)山东青岛市黄岛区长江西路66号中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院。电话:0532-86981764。E-mail:guanzhch@163.com
