摘要
利用最大熵模型,结合地形、植被、气象等环境因子,模拟了湖北省钉螺在基准期(1986—2005年)的分布,预测了RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5这3种未来情景下2021—2040年、2051—2070年和2081—2100年湖北省钉螺潜在分布风险。结果表明,基于主导环境因子建立的最大熵模型的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下的面积(AUC)平均值达到0.894±0.024,可用于未来气候变化情景下湖北省钉螺的潜在分布研究。3种排放情景下钉螺潜在分布低、中风险区范围相对基准期分别扩大了4.5%和1.6%,无风险区范围缩小了9.3%;伴随着未来可能的气候变化,钉螺潜在分布中、高风险区向北移动。
Based on Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model and combined with topographic,vegetational,meteorological and other environmental factors,potential distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei province in base period(1986-2005)was simulated,and potential distribution risk zones of Oncomelania in Hubei province under RCP2.6,RCP4.5and RCP8.5scenarios during2021-2040,2051-2070and2081-2100were projected respectively.The results showed that,the projection with MaxEnt model had a higher simulation accuracy with its mean AUC of ROC value of0.894±0.024,which was credible and acceptable for future Oncomelania potential distribution projection in Hubei province under the three RCPs.Oncomelania potential distribution illustrated an extension at low and middle risk by4.5%and1.6%respectively and reduction of risk-free by9.3%compared with the base period.Oncomelania potential distribution zones at middle and high risk would move northward.
作者
汤阳
刘可群
魏凤华
任永健
张丽文
肖玮钰
Tang Yang;Liu Kequn;Wei Fenghua;Ren Yongjian;Zhang Liwen;Xiao Weiyu(Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期606-613,共8页
Climate Change Research
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201409)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571487)
关键词
钉螺
气候变化
最大熵模型
潜在分布
Oncomelania
climate change
maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model
potential distribution
作者简介
汤阳，男，工程师；刘可群( 通信作者)，男，正研级高工，kequnliu@126.com
