摘要
从新近解密的美国外交档案来看,1973年第四次中东战争爆发的外部原因是美国错误的"不战不和"政策,内部原因是埃及总统萨达特急于光复西奈半岛,并希望通过制造一场危机来迫使国际社会启动中东政治谈判。基辛格在这场危机的爆发、演变和结束过程中扮演着核心角色。他实施的斡旋外交将苏联排除在中东事务之外,使埃以双方找到了谈判的基点,并启动了中东和平进程。研究表明,中东和平进程在当时能够顺利启动,一方面是因为埃以双方在经历了4次中东战争后,均意识到和平谈判比战争解决冲突的成本更低,更有吸引力,这是内因;另一方面是因为埃以双方同美国分别形成了非对称相互依赖关系,且美国有意利用软权力弥补硬权力之不足、开展斡旋外交、推动中东和平。这是外因。相比之下,当前中东和平进程停滞不前,主要是因为缺乏上述内因与外因的双重条件。
Judging by the declassified documents,the Yom Kippur War had both internal and external dynamics.Externally,the U.S.government tried in vain to maintain its wrong foreign policy of ' No Peace,No War';internally,the Egyptian president Sadat attempted to recover Sinai Peninsula,and strived to initiate a negotiation by creating a crisis.Henry Kissinger played a key role in the origin,evolution and ending of the crisis.His quasi-alliance diplomacy helped Israel and Egypt find a basis for negotiation,and prevented Soviet from intervening in the Middle East affairs.The Middle East peace process then had both internal and external driving forces.Internally,Israeli and Egyptian leaders were both tired of war and pinned high expectation on peaceful negotiation;externally,the two sides had formed asymmetrical interdependence on the U.S.,which was willing to exert pressure on the two countries for compromise and carried out mediation diplomacy.Nevertheless,the current Middle-East peace process is still in stagnation,mainly due to the lack of both internal and external dynamics above-mentioned.
出处
《美国问题研究》
CSSCI
2010年第1期116-129,207,209,共16页
Fudan American Review
基金
"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目"构建中国特色阿拉伯学-中东学研究"
上海市重点学科B702资助
