摘要
文章结合中国市场特点,利用货币市场均衡和估值效应的理论模型,研究了资本账户开放可能带来的风险。文章认为,国际收支不平衡是货币危机的基础,而估值效应加剧了这种不平衡、增大了危机爆发的可能性。因此,在维持国际资本账户基本平衡的基础上稳定汇率,是资本账户开放后更可行的政策目标。当国际收支大体平衡且国内货币调控深度足够时,以利率调节为手段的货币通胀目标便易于实现,从而有利于达到国内外市场均衡。
Based on the characteristics of Chinese market,this paper studies the possible risks resulting from capital account liberalization by theoretical models of currency market equilibrium and valuation effect.It argues that the imbalance between international income and expenditures is the base of currency crisis;the valuation effect intensifies this imbalance and increases the possibility of crises.Therefore,on the basis of the maintenance of basic balance of international capital account,exchange rate stability is a more feasible policy target after capital account liberalization.With rough balance between international income and expenditures,and enough domestic currency control in depth,currency inflation target taking interest rates control as the measure is easy to achieve,thereby being conducive to the balance between international and domestic markets.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期17-26,110,共11页
Journal of Finance and Economics
关键词
资本账户开放
货币市场均衡
估值效应
风险控制
capital account liberalization
currency market equilibrium
valuation effect
risk control
