摘要
绿色"一带一路"强调增长动力的转换,其落脚点是绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)的提升。中国沿线重点省域作为推进绿色"一带一路"实施的先锋与主力军,一方面,其更能充分享受到深度参与"一带一路"建设所带来的发展红利,另一方面其战略支撑与撬动作用关乎着绿色"一带一路"的建设成效与进度。本文首次基于"一带一路"沿线中国重点省域视角,采用基于SBM方向距离函数的GML指数测算并分析沿线重点省域GTFP的发展现状与动因来源;利用断点回归首次定量分析"一带一路"建设对沿线重点省域GTFP的影响净效应,并探讨沿线重点省域下一步加快GTFP发展的务实路径。研究发现:(1)沿线重点省域的GTFP发展现状总体较好;技术进步是主要驱动力。(2)"一带一路"建设对沿线重点省域的GTFP和技术进步均起到了显著促进作用,影响净效应分别达0. 138和0. 156。(3)研发投入对GTFP和技术进步表现为抑制作用但不显著;经济发展与GTFP表现为"U"型关系,沿线重点省域当前的经济发展水平与GTFP表现为负相关;沿线重点省域与"一带一路"沿线国家间的贸易对GTFP当前主要表现为负效应,原因受限于沿线重点省域不合理的贸易结构和研发与经济水平的掣肘作用。(4)"一带一路"建设对丝绸之路经济带和海上丝绸之路沿线重点省域的GTFP均表现为显著正效应,影响净效应分别达0. 143和0. 130,对两大区域的技术进步同样表现为正效应,影响净效应分别达0. 152和0. 161。(5)沿线重点省域下一步应重点从借力对外贸易,发展绿色经济;完善创新机制,重视人才效用;强调科技创新,优化研发结构等方面入手来提升自身的GTFP发展水平。
The green ‘Belt and Road＇ emphasizes on the transformation of the growth proficiency and has the promotion of green total factor productivity （GTFP） as its end point. Being the primary force in the construction of the ‘Belt and Road＇, on the one hand, China＇ s provinces along the route can benefit from the development of participating deeply in the construction of the ‘Belt and Road＇ ; on the other hand, their strategic support and leverage are related to the construction results and progress of the green ‘Belt and Road＇. From the perspective of China＇ s key provincial regions along the ‘Belt and Road＇ route for the first time, this paper evaluates the current status and power sources of GTFP of Chinese provinces along the route using the GML index based on SBM directional distance function, and initially analyzes the net effect of the Belt and Road on GTFP in the provinces quantitatively. It also discusses practical ways to improve GTFP development key provinces along the route. Moreover, research shows that： ①the overall development status of GTFP in the provinces is relatively well, and technological progress is its main driving force. ②The ＇ Belt and Road＇ has played a significant role in promoting GTFP and technological progress in the provinces with the net effect of 0. 138 and 0. 156 respectively. ③The R＆D investment has an inhibitory effect on GTFP and technological progress which is not significant. There is a ‘U＇ type relationship between econonfic development and the GTFP, and the current level of econonfic development in key provinces along the ‘Belt and Road＇ is negatively correlated with the performance of GTFP. The trade between provinces and countries along the route shows negative effects on GTFP which is restricted by unreasonable trade structure, the constraint function of eeononfie development level and R＆D. ④The ‘Belt and Road＇ has played a significant role in promoting GTFP in the provinces along the Silk Road Econonfic Belt and Maritime Silk Road with the net effect of 0. 143 and 0. 130, as well as the technological progress of provinces in two areas with the net effect of 0. 152 and 0. 161 respectively.⑤The provinces along the route should take advantage of the foreign trade, develop green economy, improve the innovation mechanism, value the utility of talents, emphasize on technological innovation, and optimize R＆D structure and other aspects to improve their own GTFP development level.
作者
刘钻扩
辛丽
LIU Zuan-kuo;XIN Li(Business School,Shandong Normal University,Jinan Shandong 250358,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第12期87-97,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
山东省社会科学规划项目"‘一带一路’沿线国家对山东省进出口贸易的行业增长效应研究"(批准号:17CJJJ33)
教育部第48批留学回国人员科研启动基金项目"碳关税对山东省经济发展的影响及对策研究"(批准号:教外司[2014]1685)
关键词
一带一路
绿色全要素生产率
SBM方向距离函数
GML指数
断点回归
the ＇Belt and Road＇
green total factor produetivity
SBM directional distance function
GML index
regression discontinuity
作者简介
刘钻扩，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为“一带一路”与国际贸易。E-mail：lzk50888@hotmail．com。
