摘要
近年来有关太阳活动的研究被越来越多的学者所关注，从冰芯、石笋、树轮以及湖相沉积物中提取的高分辨率古气候替代指标数据序列中都发现存在着年际-百年甚至千年尺度的变化周期，这些不同时间尺度的气候变化周期信号与不同时间尺度的太阳活动周期的信号存在着某种关联性，但是其具体的物理驱动机制仍然是一个未解之谜。本研究利用实际观测的和重建的太阳黑子数据序列以及反映不同季风和降水强度的美国加州白山山脉狐尾松（Pinus longaeva）树轮的碳同位素数据和南美洲巴西Pau d＇Alho洞及中国贵州董哥洞石笋的氧同位素数据序列，通过频谱分析、小波变换的交叉谱和相干谱分析以及振幅调制等方法，发现石笋和树轮中记录的气候变化的周期信号与太阳活动的年际-千年尺度的周期存在着明显的相关性，这些气候指标中记录的这些周期信号与太阳活动周期之间具有1/4个到3/4个周期的滞后，据此推断地球表层气候系统在年代际-千年尺度的变化受到了太阳活动周期的驱动。并且发现约88 a的周期是约11 a太阳黑子活动周期的振幅调制周期信号，而约500 a、1000 a和2000 a的气候变化信号是太阳活动周期约88 a和210 a振幅变化的调制周期信号，从而推断地球的气候不但受到像偏心率调控岁差周期这样的驱动机制，可能同时还受到约88 a周期调制约11 a太阳活动周期振幅的变化，以及约500 a调制约88 a周期振幅的变化，约1000 a和2000 a周期调制210 a周期振幅的变化等驱动。目前地球正处于88 a周期变化的振幅低值时期，未来几年地球可能存在着变冷的趋势，结合偏心率长周期的变化趋势，本研究为预测未来地球气候变化的短期和长期趋势提供了重要的科学依据。
In recent years, more and more scientists have paid more attention to the research on solar activity. There are interannual-century or even millennium scale climate cycles found in the high-resolution paleoclimate proxies data series extracted from the ice cores, stalagmites, tree rings and lake sediments. There are some correlations between the climate changes signals and the solar cycles at the different time scales, however, its physical drive mechanism is still an unsolved mystery. In this study we collected the actual observed and reconstructed data sequences of sunspots data series, and the tree-ring δ13C from the bristlecone pine tree-ring in California（USA） and stalagmite δ18O from the ALHO6 stalagmite of Pau d＇Alho cave in Brazil and Dongge cave stalagmite in Guizhou of China reflecting monsoon and precipitation intensity, through spectrum analysis, cross spectrum of wavelet transform, coherent spectrum analysis and amplitude modulation. It was found that the periodic signals of climate change recorded in stalagmites and tree rings are significantly correlated with the interannual-millennial scale cycle of solar activity, and that there is a relationship between these periodic signals recorded in the climate proxies and the solar cycles. The lag of 1/4 to 3/4 cycle, according to which it is inferred that the changes in the Earth＇s surface climate system in interannual-Millennium scale are driven by the solar cycles. In addition, it is found that the period of about 88 a is the amplitude modulation period signal of the sunspot activity cycle of about 11 a, while the climate change signals of ca. 500 a, 1000 a and 2000 a are the solar activity cycle ca. 88 a and 210 a amplitude modulation period signals, indicate that the Earth＇s climate is not only driven by such an eccentricity-modulated precession cycle, but also by the ca. 88 a modulation of the 11 a solar activity cycle amplitude, as well as ca. 500 a modulation ca. 88 a period amplitude variation, ca. 1000 a and 2000 a period modulation ca. 210 a period amplitude changes. We found that the Earth is currently in a low amplitude of about 88 a period. The Earth may experience a cooling trend in the next few years, combined with the trend of long eccentricity, which provides an important scientific basis for predicting the short-term and long-term trends for the future global climate change.
作者
黄春菊
田晓丽
Huang Chunju;Tian Xiaoli(State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology,Laboratory of Critical Zone Evolution,School of Earth Sciences China University of Geosciences（Wahan）,Wuhan 430074,Hube)
出处
《第四纪研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期1255-1267,共13页
Quaternary Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41772029和41322013）、湖北省杰出青年科学基金项目（批准号：2016CFA051）和中央高校科研专项基金（批准号：CUGCJ1703和CUGQYZX1705）共同资助
关键词
太阳活动
周期信号
气候变化
驱动机制
振幅调制
solar activity
periodic signal
climate change
driving mechanism
amplitude modulation
作者简介
黄春菊，女，44岁，教授，旋回地层学与全球变化研究，E-mail：huangcj@cug．edu．cn
