摘要
为研究城镇化对碳排放影响,以Kaya恒等式为基础建立了LMDI模型,将碳排放变动分解至6种效应。结果表明:能源强度效应、人口城镇化效应对碳排放有负向作用,能源强度效应负向作用显著;产业结构效应、收入城镇化效应、土地城镇化效应对碳排放有正向作用,城镇化因素中与经济相关的收入城镇化效应正向作用最为显著;"十二五"时期较"十一五"时期城镇化进程速度与GDP增速都呈下降趋势,"十二五"时期碳减排效果更佳。
In order to study the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions, a LMDI model was established based on Kayaks identity and the carbon emissions were decomposed into six effects. The results show that energy intensity and population urbanization have a negative effect on carbon emissions, and energy intensity has a negative effect; in dustrial structure, income urbanization, land urbanization have a positive effect on carbon emissions; the urbanization effect of income related has the most positive effect. Compared with the ＂11th Five--Year Plan＂ period, both the speed of urbanization and the growth rate of GDP show a declining trend during the ＂12th Five Year Plan＂ period. Carbon reduction during the ＂12th Five Year Plan＂ period is better.
作者
刘茜
Liu Xi(College of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao,Shandong,266000,China)
出处
《绿色科技》
2018年第18期225-229,共5页
Journal of Green Science and Technology
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(批准号:17ATJ002)
全国统计科研项目(批准号:2016LY42)
关键词
城镇化
碳排放
LMDI
能源消耗
urbanization
carbon emissions
LMDI
energy consumption
作者简介
刘茜（1994-），女，青岛大学经济学院硕士研究生。
