摘要
目前我国东北地区正面临着日益严重的人口流失问题,业已对东北地区经济持续发展、人口结构和政府决策产生了巨大的冲击。为了深入研究东北人口流失问题的成因,本文分别从整体经济环境、就业预期、教育水平、环境条件、社保水平、经济结构和迁移成本这七个可能对人口迁移造成影响的角度出发,选取35个子指标衡量东北三省人口吸引力情况,使用因子分析法,从35个指标中提取经济发展差距因子、经济结构差异因子、教育环境因子和迁移阻碍因子作为解释变量,并以东北人口迁出率为被解释变量。同时本文还选取2000年到2015年间东北相关的时间序列数据作为研究对象,使用基于Kalman滤波过程的时变多元线性回归模型,分析潜在因子对东北人口迁移造成的影响及其时变特征。研究结果显示:经济结构差异是引发东北地区人口流失的最重要因素,其影响能力表现出逐年扩大的态势;产业机构过于单一化和新型产业发展的局限性是东北人口迁出的主要动力;经济发展差距对东北地区人口外流也有着举足轻重的影响。
At present,the northeast region of China is facing the problem of increasing population loss,which has had a great impact on the economic sustainable development,population structure and government decision-making in Northeast China. To study the causes of population loss in Northeast China,this paper starts from the perspective of the seven possible impacts of population migration on the overall economic environment,employment expectations,education level,environmental conditions,social securitylevels,economic structure,and migration costs,selects a total of 35 subindicators to measure the popula-tion attractiveness of the three provinces in Northeast China. In this paper,factor analysis method is used toextract economic development gap factor,economic structure difference factor,education environment factor and migration hindrance factor as explanatory variables from 35 indicators,and the population migrationrate in Northeast China is explained as an explanatory variable. At the same time,this paper also selects thetime series data of Northeast China from 2000 to 2015 as the research object,and uses the time-varyingmultiple linear regression model based on the Kalman filtering process to analyze the influence of latent fac-tors on the migration of Northeast population and its time-varying characteristics. The final results showthat the economic structure difference is the most important factor leading to the loss of population in theNortheast,and the influence capacity shows a tendency of expanding year by year;The limitation of theoversimplification of industrial organizations and the development of new industries is the main driving force for the Northeast＇s population migration;The economic development gap also has a significant impact on the outflow of population in the Northeast.
作者
赵放
刘雅君
ZHAO Fang;LIU Yajun(School of Economics ,Jilin University, Changchun Jilin, 130012, China;Jilin Academy of Social Sciences, Changchun Jilin, 130031, China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期82-91,共10页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金项目:新一轮东北振兴背景下产业转型升级的效率测算与路径研究(17CJY025)
作者简介
赵放（1983-），男，吉林长春人，吉林大学经济学院副教授；;刘雅君（1983-），女，河北邯郸人，吉林省社会科学院助理研究员。
