摘要
本文通过将贸易品美元定价约束纳入新开放经济宏观经济学(NOEM)理论框架,利用中美季度数据对不同资本市场结构下的两国模型进行参数估计,分析了模型的矩拟合能力与通货膨胀目标冲击的国际传导和福利效应。结果表明,包含噪声预期时的模型参数估计最理想,取消结构参数的对称设定并引入不对称贸易品定价约束,将显著改善模型的矩匹配效果。方差分解表明,通货膨胀目标是影响中美经济波动的重要外部冲击。借助脉冲响应冲击的研究显示,提高目标通货膨胀率虽有利于政策实施国的经济扩张,但导致贸易伙伴产出与消费同时下降,是典型的"以邻为壑"政策。福利分析发现,贸易开放度越高,外汇市场越偏离理性预期,通货膨胀目标冲击导致的福利损失就越大。
By further improving the NOEM model, we empirically estimate the two-country model un- der various capital market structures with quarterly data of China and U. S. We test moment match ability of the model and study the international transmission of inflation target shock in details. The paper reveals estimation of the model with noise exchange rate expectations is better than others. Relaxations of the symmetric structural parameters and introducing tradable goods pricing constraints significantly improve the model＇s mo- ment match effect. Using variance decomposition we find inflation target shock is a key source of economic fluctuations of both countries. Further research with IRF analysis shows adjustment of inflation target benefits domestic economy but leads to obvious shrinking of trade partners＇ output and consumption, which is a typical beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy. Welfare analysis proves that higher trade openness and more deviation from rational expectation of foreign exchange market result in larger welfare loss of inflation target shock.
作者
范爱军
卞学字
Fan Aijun;Bian Xuezi
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期45-70,共26页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
教育部规划基金项目(15YJA790040)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2013GM019)
山东大学人文社科青年团队项目(2014IFYT1405)的资助
作者简介
范爱军：山东大学经济学院济南市山大南路27号250100电子信箱：fanaj@163．com；;卞学字：山东财经大学国际经贸学院250014电子信箱：595381184@qq．com。
