摘要
地区发展不均衡、投资规模差异化及受灾影响程度的不同导致我国城市和农村配电网供电可靠性水平具有较大差距,如何协调城农网一体化发展、缩短城农网差异化水平成为我国配电网未来关注的焦点。文章首先分析了2016年度我国城农网供电可靠性指标现状;其次,从配电网投资及受灾角度对我国城农网供电可靠性水平的差异性进行了分析;最后,根据供电可靠性指标现状及历史数据提出了基于时间序列及线性回归算法的指标预测方法,并对某地区2018年城农网供电可靠性指标进行了预测。预测结果表明,文章所提方法能够考虑到不同停电原因的停电特点做出较为准确的预测。随着投资的稳增长,该地区配电网网架结构将会进一步完善,城农网协调化发展也将得到提升。
The Chinese urban and rural electric power network reliability still has a large gap because of the difference of geographical environment, the investment and the degree of disaster impact. How to coordinate the integration of urban and rural electric power network development has become the focus of attention. Firstly, the present situation of reliability index of urban and rural electric power network in 2016 is analyzed in this paper. Secondly, the key factors influencing the difference of urban and rural power network are analyzed from the perspective of investment and disaster. Finally, the index prediction method based on time series and linear regression algorithm is proposed based on the current situation of power supply reliability index and historical data, and the reliability index of urban power supply network in a certain area in 2018 is predicted. From the prediction results, the method proposed in this paper can take into account the power outage characteristics of different power blackouts to make a more accurate prediction of the index of urban and rural areas in 2018 in this area. The grid structure of the distribution network in the region will be further improved and the coordinated development of urban and rural network will also be promoted with the steady growth of investment.
出处
《供用电》
2018年第2期47-51,共5页
Distribution & Utilization
关键词
城农网
供电可靠性
指标预测
urban and rural electric power network
power supply reliability
index prediction
作者简介
王宗礼（1989-），男，硕士，主要从事配电网供电可靠性研究，配电网可靠性评估研究。;刘苑红（1984-），女，高级工程师，主要从事供电可靠性分析与评估工作。;王宏刚（1975-），男，高级工程师，主要从事电力系统可靠性管理工作。;刘伟（1975-），男，教授级高级工程师，主要从事配电网规划与评价技术研究、配电网运营大数据挖掘工作。;韦涛（1976-），男，高级工程师，主要从事配电网规划计算分析、主动配电网规划与分析等方面的研究和管理工作。
