摘要
为了探讨广西玉林2016年5月20日出现的特大暴雨,导致幼穗期的早稻严重失收、菜秧烂根、荔枝龙眼的幼果发育迟缓的成因。利用NCEP 1°×1°全球客观分析资料、常规气象资料,以及FY2E卫星云图的TBB反演和多普勒雷达数据,对此特大暴雨进行中尺度系统(MCS)及动力机制分析。结果表明:(1)高纬度环流呈"两槽一脊",不断分裂东移的高空槽和副热带高压西北侧暖湿气流的配合,为玉林特大暴雨中MCS产生提供有利的环流背景;(2)高层强辐散与低层强辐合的耦合,有抽吸作用,利于MCS的发展,暴雨区出现在低空急流入口的左侧玉林一带;(3)玉林上空有明显的水汽辐合,充足的水汽条件使MCS得以维持;(4)MCS出现在对流云团中心和TBB梯度较大区域。以上原因造成玉林大范围特大暴雨天气,导致幼穗期的早稻严重失收、农业受灾重。拟总结经验,以期今后遇到类似的天气形势时,可以更好把握天气,提早预报,为防灾减灾提供参考依据。
The paper aims to explore the premature rice crop failure, vegetable seedling rotted root, and thegrowth retardation of litchi and longan during young spike period caused by the torrential rain in Yulin on May 20, 2016. Based on NCEP 1°×1° global objective analysis data, conventional meteorological data, TBB fromFY2E infrared cloud and Doppler radar data, the authors analyzed the heavy rainstorm mesoscale system（MCS）and dynamic mechanism. The results showed that：（1） heavy rainstorm occurred in the＂two slots and oneridge＂under the large circulation background, the combination of the eastward flow and the warm and humidair flow in the northwest side of the subtropical high pressure provided a favorable circulation background forMCS;（2） the coupling of the high-level strong divergence and the low-level convergence was favorable to thevertical uplift and the occurrence of the MCS; the rainstorm occurred at the right side of the low-level jetentrance;（3） there was a clear convergence of water vapor over Yulin, providing sufficient water vapor, whichallowed the MCS to maintain;（4） MCS occurred at the center of the convective cloud, i.e. the area with largergradient of TBB. The above reasons for Yulin large-scale heavy rain weather led to heavy loss of early rice cropand other heavy agricultural disasters. This article intends to summarize the experience to better grasp thebackground of similar weather pattern and offer a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.
出处
《农学学报》
2017年第12期46-51,共6页
Journal of Agriculture
基金
广西玉林市气象局项目"多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报的应用"(201603)
作者简介
林宝亭，女，1986年出生，广西博白人，工程师，本科，主要从事短期天气预报分析和研究。通信地址：537000广西玉林市气象局人民东路169号，Tel：0775—2683459，E—mail：baoting86@163．com。
