摘要
基于汾河流域内154个雨量站1971—2010年的逐月降水量数据,利用GIS地统计模块和MK非参数检验方法,对汾河全流域及其上中下游4个空间尺度的降水量在年、四季和汛期的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：时间上,汾河流域的年、夏季和汛期降水量均呈不显著的递减趋势,春秋冬三季降水量均呈不显著的递增趋势;空间上,由于地形原因,汾河流域上游与其他尺度的年、夏冬季和汛期降水量分布表现相反;汾河流域的年、夏秋季和汛期降水序列在20世纪70年代中后期（1979年居多）发生突变,之后降水基本呈不显著的递减趋势;春季降水量在1973年附近开始突变,80年代呈极显著增加趋势;冬季降水量在1973年附近开始突变,1999年后呈显著减少趋势。
The Fenhe River Basin is located in a semiarid and semi-humid region. As the main replenishment source,precipitation could exert the significant impact on the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in this basin. A dataset of monthly precipitation series（ from 1971 to 2011） from 154 precipitation stations was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation,precipitation in spring（ from March to May）,summer（ from June to August）,autumn（ from September to November） and winter（ from December to next January） as well as flood season（ from June to September） in the whole Fenhe River Basin（ FHRB） and its upper reaches（ TUR）,middle reaches（ TMR） and lower reaches（ TLR） during the period of 1971-2011. The geostatistical analyst module of GIS was used to compare and select the optimal interpolation model,and the nonparametric MannKendall（ MK） statistical method was used to test the trend and abrupt change. The study results are as follow：（1）There were the similar spatial distribution patterns of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season in FHRB,TMR and TLR,the precipitation was in a decrease trend from the south to the north and from the mountainous areas to the basins,and the lowest rainfall value occurred in the central Taiyuan Basin. In spring and winter,the trend of isohyets was from the east to the west with a decrease trend from the south to the north. In autumn,the trend of isohyets was from the northwest to the southeast with a decrease trend from the southwest to the northeast. Spatial distribution of precipitation was homogeneous in spring and winter in TUR,while annual precipitation and rainfall in summer,autumn and flood season was high in the western mountainous areas than that in the eastern mountainous areas and central valley areas;（2） As a whole,there was a negative trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season,but a positive trend of precipitation in spring,autumn（ including TUR） and winter in FHRB,TMR and TLR. On the contrary,there was a positive trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season,but a negative trend of precipitation in winter in TUR. The liner trends of annual precipitation,precipitation in spring,summer,autumn,winter and flood season in FHRB during the period from 1971 to 2011 were-6. 0 mm·（ 10 a）-1,5. 3 mm·（ 10 a）-1,-10. 0 mm·（ 10 a）-1,6. 6 mm·（ 10 a）-1,0. 2 mm·（ 10 a）-1 and-7. 2 mm·（ 10 a）-1 respectively. All the decrease or increase trends were not significant（ P〈0. 10）;（3） Abrupt changes of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer,autumn and flood season were detected during mid-late 1970 s,most of which occurred in 1979. After the abrupt years,precipitation trends were mainly negative but not reached the significant level（ P〈0. 05）. In spring,abrupt changes of precipitation were detected in 1973,and the positive trend reached a significant level（ P〈0. 01） in the 1980 s. In winter,abrupt changes of precipitation were detected in 1973 in FHRB and TLR but in 1979 in TUR and TMR,and the negative trend reached a significant level（ P〈0. 05） in 1999.
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期57-67,共11页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家国际科技合作专项项目(2012DFA20770)资助
作者简介
张晨（1993-），女，在读硕士，研究方向为区域生态学．E—mall：460610226@qq．com;通讯作者：严俊霞．E-mail：yjx422@8xu．edu．cn
