摘要
基于淮河上中游流域19个站点1960-2014年的月降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势分析、变差系数、年内不均匀系数、小波分析、Kriging空间插值等方法,对年降水和主汛期降水的统计特征、趋势和周期性等时间特征及空间分布特征进行研究。结果表明:流域主汛期降水占到年降水的50%以上,地域分布上以东南部和西南部雨量较多。年降水和主汛期降水在年际上分别呈现21~32a、8~19a、3~7a和24~32a、8~21a、3~7a三个时间尺度的丰枯演变特征,同一时间尺度的丰枯变化基本相同。主汛期降水年际Cv普遍大于年降水,但空间分布不一致;年降水Cv较大值分布于流域西部和北部,较小值分布于流域东部和东南部;主汛期降水年际Cv较大值分布于流域西部,较小值分布于流域东北部及蚌埠一带;北部降水的年内分配不均性略大于南部。年降水和主汛期降水的变化趋势均不显著,没有通过95%的置信度检验,但主汛期降水略呈增加趋势而年降水呈微弱下降趋势;年降水在流域北、西和西南部表现为减少趋势,尤以西、西南部较为明显,而流域中、南和东南部主要表现为增加趋势;主汛期降水则从北向南以条带状表现为增加趋势。
In order to understand the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of annual and main flood season precipitation in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River basin, we analyzed the monthly precipitation data in 19 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 by using the climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall analysis, coefficient of variation, non-uniform coefficient of annual distribution, wavelet analysis, and Kriging method. The results were as follows： （1） The main flood season precipitation accounted for more than 50% of the annual precipitation, and it tended to concentrate in the southwest and southeast. The annual precipitation showed ＂wet/dry＂ alternations on the 21～32 a, 8～ 19 a, and 3～7 a time scales, while the main flood season precipitation showed such alternations on the 24～32 a,8～21 a, and 3～ 7 a time scales. The ＂wet/dry＂ alternations on the same time scale were basically identical. （2） The coefficient of variation （Cv） of main flood season precipitation was generally greater than that of annual precipitation, yet their spatial distributions were different. The larger Cv values of annual precipitation were mainly distributed in the western and northern basin,while the smaller values were in the east and southeast. The larger Cv values of main flood season precipitation were distributed in the western basin, while the smaller values were in the northeast and Bengbu area. The non-uniformity of annual distribution of precipitation in the north was slightly larger than that in the south. （3） The variation trends of both annual and main flood season precipitation were not significant, failing the 95% confidence test. But the main flood season precipitation showed a slight increasing trend whereas the annual precipitation showed a slight decreasing trend. The annual precipitation tended to decline in the north, west, and southwest, but it tended to increase in the middle, south and southeast. The main flood season precipitation tended to increase in a striped manner from north to south.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期51-58,共8页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(15KJB170019)
扬州大学科技创新培育基金(2015CXJ032)
扬州大学高层次人才科研启动基金(137010582)
江苏省水利动力工程重点实验室资助项目(K13019)~~
关键词
降水
主汛期
时空分布
气候变化
淮河流域
precipitation
main flood season
temporal and spatial characteristics
climate change
Huaihe River basin
作者简介
王景才（1984-），男，河南南阳人，讲师，博士，主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail：wangiingcai@yzu．edu．cn
