摘要
利用2008—2016年6-8月黑龙江省844个自动雨量站资料,采用了多级判别法、一元线性回归、平均值显著性检验、配料等方法统计黑龙江省311天的2 154个站次短时强降水的时空分布特征;再利用常规气象资料、NECP的1°×1°再分析资料总结这些短时强降水在对流层中层500 h Pa和地面主要影响系统。分析结果表明:黑龙江省短时强降水日数和站次都与本年6-8月全省总平均降水量成线性关系,相关性分别为0.841和0.917;按照区域尺度划分的局地性、区域性和大范围短时强降水中,在强降水日数和分布上依次减小和不均,在强降水站次和连续性上依次增加;2008年和2013年分别为短时强降水最少和最多的年份;局地性和区域性短时强降水分别在7月上、下旬为达到峰值,大范围短时强降水在6月上、中旬分布很少,8月下旬没有,其它时间均匀分布;由于受太阳辐射,下垫面影响,午后12~19时是强降水高发期,14~15时达到站次最高值,1~4时为站次最低值;短时强降水主要分布在海拔为100~200 m的西南地区,北部地区分布较少;北部和东南部部分地区没有大范围短时强降水产生;多项数据表明太阳辐射导致的非绝热加热为强降水特别是局地强降水带来巨大贡献;高空低值系统与地面锋面共同影响是产生短时强降水及增加降水面积的主要影响系统;由于受降水性质和系统发生频率以及水汽和热力等条件影响,受高空槽前配合地面暖锋影响比例最大。
In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-term heavy precipitation in 2 154 stations of 311 d in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed, which are based on the data of 844 automatic rainfall stations in Heilongjiang Province from June to August in 2008-2016 by a multi-level discriminant method, a linear regression, the mean significance test and other methods. Then we reanalyzed 500hPa and ground surface of the main impact systems using the conventional meteorological data and NCEP 1°×1° resolution. The results show that the number of heavy rainfall days and stations are linear with the average precipitation in the whole province from June to August this year. The correlation coefficients are 0.841 and 0.917 respectively. The local, regional and large-scale short-term heavy rainfall, which are divided according to the regional scale, are reduced and unevenly in the number and distribution of heavy rainfall days, and then increase in succession and succession in heavy rainfall stations. The least and the largest short-term heavy rainfall years from 2008 and 2013. Local and regional short-term heavy rainfall in July, respectively, to reach the peak in late, a large range of short-term heavy rainfall in June, the distribution of the middle of very few, in late August, no other time evenly distributed. Due to solar radiation, the underlying surface of the impact of the afternoon 12~19 is a high incidence of heavy rainfall, 14~15 hours to reach the highest station, 1~4 times the lowest value for the station. Short-term heavy rainfall is mainly distributed in the southwest region with an elevation of 100~200 m, and less in the northern region. There is no large-scale short-term heavy precipitation in the northern and southeastern parts of China. A number of data indicate that non-adiabatic heating due to solar radiation contributes significantly to heavy rainfall, especially local heavy precipitation. Due to the nature of the precipitation and the frequency of the system, as well as water vapor and heat conditions, the ratio of the upper air front and ground warm front is the largest.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期175-183,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2015-022)
利用数值预报初探短时强降水72 h潜势预报(HQ2017003)共同资助~~
关键词
自动雨量站
短时强降水
区域尺度
时空分布
影响系统
automatic rainfall station
short-term heavy rainfall
regional scale
temporal and spatial distribution
impact system
作者简介
吴迎旭（1980-）,女,高级工程师,主要从事卫星、雷达及短时临近预报研究.E-mail：wuyingxu281@163.com
