摘要
CTCS-3级车地通信子系统是列控系统的重要组成部分之一,且列控系统需求的列车位置、行车许可、临时限速等安全信息都由其提供,因此,对其进行可靠性分析具有十分重要的意义。采用贝叶斯网络对系统进行可靠性分析,并对维修方式进行了讨论。首先,根据车地通信子系统的功能与结构构建其贝叶斯网络模型。然后,综合考虑维修性、共因失效等因素,对车地通信子系统进行可靠性分析。最后,在可靠性分析的基础上运用模糊综合评判法对其进行维修决策。结果表明:利用贝叶斯网络的双向推理,不仅可以计算出车地通信子系统的可靠度,还可以有效识别系统的薄弱环节;若不考虑车地通信系统冗余结构中的共因失效,则得到的可靠性指标会偏于乐观。地面GSM-R单元失效是引起车地通信子系统失效的关键事件,因此针对此薄弱环节进行状态维修检查能够有效降低事故的发生概率。
The paper intends to introduce a decision-perseverance method based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and RCM means for determining the maintenance mode of the railway carriage communication subsystem of CTCS-3（ short for the Chinese Train Control System-3）. The subject has been chosen just for the urgent need that the current maintenance methods in this way fail to take into account the railway carriage control system as an integrated comprehensive system and the factors involved,such as their maintenance and general failure,whereas the CTCS-3 carriage-ground communication subsystem is by nature one of the key control systems to provide such items of information,as those of the exact location,the driving situation,the current speed limit and other items of the safety control. It is just for the above reasons that we have first of all established a faulty tree model for the said communication subsystem of CTCS-3 in terms of the structures and functions. And,secondly,an assessment model based on the Bayesian network has been set up by using a software known as MSBNX to analyze the reliability of the carriage-ground communication subsystem on account of such factors,as the maintenance errors and dynamic failure,in case of the failure of the basic units and the reliability assessment model. And,finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation has to be made to determine the maintenance modes based on the reliability analysis results.The key points of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation can be summed up to determine the weighting factors and the weighing matrix. The results of our study indicate that,the bidirectional reasoning of Bayesian network can not only help towork out the reliability of the carriage-ground communication subsystem of CTCS-3 but can also identify effectively the weak links of the subsystem. For example,the deviation of the analysis results can be too serious regardless of the influence of common cause failures on the reliability of the system,whichare likely tolead to the reduction of the failure of the train-ground communication subsystem by giving more regular inspections of the working conditions of the weak links of the carriage-ground communication subsystem based on its actual operation. Thus,it can be seen that the study results of the paper can be taken as a guide to enhance the routine maintenance of CTCS-3,as well as a reference to the scientific method for successful management of the maintenance routine.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期1657-1663,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2015X007-H)
关键词
安全工程
可靠性分析
CTCS-3级车地通信子系统
贝叶斯网络
共因失效
模糊综合评判
safety engineering
reliability analysis
train-ground communication subsystem of CTCS - 3
Bayesian net- work
common cause failure
fuzzy comprehensive e- valuation
作者简介
张友鹏，教授，从事系统可靠性研究，ypv2548@163．com.
