摘要
本文通过分析GTAP模型,指出了现有方法在测度FTA经济效应上的缺陷:(1)经济失衡使得GTAP模型的模拟结果与真实情况可能存在较大差异;(2)GTAP模型比较复杂,模型设定错误可能对均衡解产生难以估量的影响;(3)GTAP模型的均衡解不连续,不利于经济效应分析。为克服这些缺陷,本文在GTAP模型的基础上建立了估计GDP对关税弹性的计量模型,并据此测度了中韩自贸协定对两国GDP的经济效应。实证结果表明:若中韩按照自贸协定进行关税削减且在削减过渡期内两国进口依存度保持现有水平不变,则中韩自贸协定将在二十年关税削减过渡期内带动中国GDP平均每年增长0.25%,带动韩国GDP平均每年增长0.63%。由本文的分析过程和测度结果可以得出:(1)自贸协定经济效应的大小取决于签订方之间的贸易依存度以及自贸协定的关税削减幅度;(2)贸易自由化是国际贸易发展的长期趋势,中国应发挥中韩自贸区的示范效应并以此推动"一带一路"倡议;(3)韩国在中韩自贸协定中获益巨大,选择"萨德"将损失惨重。
This paper analyzed the GTAP model and pointed out the main drawbacks of the existing methods in mea- suring the economic effect of the FTA： Firstly, Economic imbalance might result in some differences between simulation results of the GTAP Model and the real economy; Secondly, Any errors in the GTAP model specification might lead to immeasurable influences on the equilibrium solution for the complexity of the system; Thirdly, the equilibrium solution of GTAP model was not continuous which made it inconvenient to analyze the economic effect. Therefore, this paper improved the GTAP model and developed an econometric model which estimated the elasticity of GDP with respect to tariff, then measured the economic effect of China-Korea FTA on GDP of China and South Korea on the ba- sis of it. Empirical results showed that if China and South Korea reduce tariff in perfect accordance with the China- ROK FTA and keep the import dependence unchanged during the tariff cutting transition period, the growth rate of GDP in China will increase 0.25 percentage per year averagely during the 20 years＇ tariff cutting transition period, while South Korea will also enjoy a GDP growth rate increase of 0.63 percentage respectively each year during the transition period. From the analysis process and empirical results of this paper, we can conclude that： First, the eco- nomic effect of FTA depends on trade dependence between the parties and the tariff reduction of the FTA; Second, trade liberalization is the development trends of international trade and China should set the China-ROK FTA as an ex- ample for promoting the ＂B＆R＂ initiative; Third, South Korea benefits a lot in the China-ROK FTA, there will be heavy losses if Korea chooses ＂Sade＂.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第10期87-98,共12页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"一带一路相关国家贸易竞争与互补关系研究"(16ZDA039)
作者简介
陈继勇（1953-），武汉大学经济与管理学院，教授。电子邮箱：cjyhubei@163．com。
余自强（1991-），武汉大学经济与管理学院。电子邮箱：yzqwhu@163．com。
